HIV-INFECTION AIDS IN THE UNITED-STATES DURING THE 1990S
HIV-INFECTION AIDS IN THE UNITED-STATES DURING THE 1990S
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DOI：
10.1093/clinids/17.supplement_1.s219
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发表时间：
1993-08-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
ROSENBERG, PS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BIGGAR, RJ;ROSENBERG, PS
通过反算得出的估计数表明，截至1991年1月1日，有628，000至988，000名美国人感染了人体免疫缺陷病毒（艾滋病毒）。在有异性性接触的人中，艾滋病毒感染率仍在上升，但在其他群体中，艾滋病毒感染率保持稳定，或从1980年代早期和中期的高峰率下降。如果假设从艾滋病毒感染到未接受治疗的人患艾滋病之间的中位潜伏期为9年，我们的模型得出的最佳估计值是截至1991年1月1日有637，000名感染者。根据这一人口，我们预测在1991年至1994年期间，每年约有55 000例艾滋病病例，1994年后吸毒者的病例多于同性恋男子。使用10年中位潜伏期的反算模型得出的可信上限估计为988 000人，到1994年，艾滋病发病率预计将增加到每年约70 000例新病例，其中大多数是同性恋男子。无论使用哪种模式，我们预测，艾滋病病例的数量归因于异性接触将稳步增加。
Estimates derived by backcalculation indicate that 628,000 to 988,000 Americans had become infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as of 1 January 1991. In persons exposed heterosexually, the incidence of HIV infection is still increasing, but in other groups, it is stable or decreasing from peak rates that occurred in the early and mid-1980s. If one assumes a 9-year median incubation period between the time of HIV infection and AIDS in untreated persons, our models yielded a best-fit estimate of 637,000 ever-infected persons as of 1 January 1991. From this population, we projected a plateau of about 55,000 incident cases of AIDS per year between 1991 and 1994, with more cases occurring among drug users than among homosexual men after 1994. Backcalculation models that use a 10-year median incubation period yielded a plausible upper-bound estimate of 988,000 ever-infected persons, and projections of AIDS incidence increased to approximately 70,000 new cases per year by 1994, the majority in homosexual men. Using either model, we project that the number of AIDS cases attributed to heterosexual exposure will increase steadily.