Modeling vital rates improves estimation of population projection matrices
Modeling vital rates improves estimation of population projection matrices
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DOI：
10.1007/s10144-005-0238-8
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Doak, DF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gross, K;Morris, WF;Doak, DF
种群投影矩阵常被生态学家和管理者用来分析阶段结构种群的动态。从数据构建投影矩阵需要估计阶段之间的转换率，这是一项通常需要用很少的数据估计许多参数的任务。因此，估计的转换率的大的抽样变异性增加了估计的矩阵和从它得出的数量的不确定性，如人口增殖率和矩阵元素的敏感性。在这里，我们提出了一个策略，以避免过度参数化的矩阵模型。该策略涉及拟合模型的生命率，确定矩阵元素，评估这些模型和那些估计矩阵元素单独与模型选择通过信息标准，并平均竞争模型与多模型平均。我们说明了这一想法，从人口的无茎蝇子草（石竹科）的数据，并进行模拟，以调查以这种方式估计的矩阵的统计特性。仿真结果表明，与单独估计矩阵元素相比，通过拟合和平均生命率估计模型来构造种群投影矩阵，可以减小种群投影矩阵和由种群投影矩阵导出的数量的统计误差。
Population projection matrices are commonly used by ecologists and managers to analyze the dynamics of stage-structured populations. Building projection matrices from data requires estimating transition rates among stages, a task that often entails estimating many parameters with few data. Consequently, large sampling variability in the estimated transition rates increases the uncertainty in the estimated matrix and quantities derived from it, such as the population multiplication rate and sensitivities of matrix elements. Here, we propose a strategy to avoid overparameterized matrix models. This strategy involves fitting models to the vital rates that determine matrix elements, evaluating both these models and ones that estimate matrix elements individually with model selection via information criteria, and averaging competing models with multimodel averaging. We illustrate this idea with data from a population of Silene acaulis (Caryophyllaceae), and conduct a simulation to investigate the statistical properties of the matrices estimated in this way. The simulation shows that compared with estimating matrix elements individually, building population projection matrices by fitting and averaging models of vital-rate estimates can reduce the statistical error in the population projection matrix and quantities derived from it.