Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios
Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios
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在阿尔伯塔油砂地区地面臭氧对环境空气质量和植被健康影响的光化学模式评估：使用现在和将来的排放方案
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.06.053
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发表时间：
2016-09
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
K. Vijayaraghavan;Sunny Cho;R. Morris;David R. Spink;Jaegun Jung;R. Pauls;Katherine Duffett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Vijayaraghavan;Sunny Cho;R. Morris;David R. Spink;Jaegun Jung;R. Pauls;Katherine Duffett
与油砂开发相关的潜在环境问题之一是沥青提取、加工和升级过程中NOx和挥发性有机化合物排放导致臭氧形成增加。为了管理阿尔伯塔东北部阿萨巴斯卡油砂区的这一问题，一个区域性多方利益攸关方团体累积环境管理协会制定了一个臭氧管理框架，其中包括一个基于模型的评估组成部分。在本文中，我们描述了如何社区多尺度空气质量（CMAQ）模型应用于评估潜在的地面臭氧形成和对环境空气质量和植被健康的影响，在AOSR的三个不同的臭氧前体的情况。应用统计分析方法，CMAQ性能结果在所有地点均符合美国EPA模型性能目标。在基准情景和未来两年情景中，模拟的第四高日最大8小时平均臭氧浓度没有超过加拿大范围内的65 ppb标准或2015年63 ppb和2020年62 ppb的新加拿大环境空气质量标准。在所有三种情况下，研究中模拟的最大1小时臭氧浓度远低于阿尔伯塔环境空气质量目标82 ppb。还评估了若干臭氧植被暴露度量标准，以调查地面臭氧对植被的潜在影响。在AOSR中，慢性3个月SUM 60暴露指标均在CEMA基线范围（0-2000 ppb-hr）内。CMAQ预测的AOT 40臭氧暴露指标在任何情况下都没有超过联合国欧洲经济委员会（UN/ECE）关注的阈值3000 ppb-hr，但略低于高端未来排放情景的阈值。在所有三种排放情景中，CMAQ预测的W126臭氧暴露度量在CEMA基线阈值4000 ppb-hr. This研究概述了使用光化学建模的影响，一个行业（油砂）对地面臭氧水平作为空气质量管理工具的AOSR。它允许对排放到大气中的污染物与整个AOSR的潜在地面臭氧浓度之间的关系进行评估，从而将结果的空间覆盖范围扩大到监测网络之外，并允许对未来可能的排放情况的潜在影响进行评估。
One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOXand volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0–2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil sands) on ground-level ozone levels as an air quality management tool in the AOSR. It allows an evaluation of the relationships between the pollutants emitted to the atmosphere and potential ground level ozone concentrations throughout the AOSR thereby extending the spatial coverage of the results beyond the monitoring network and also allowing an assessment of the potential impacts of possible future emission cases.