Oil Release from Macondo Well MC252 Following the Deepwater Horizon Accident
Oil Release from Macondo Well MC252 Following the Deepwater Horizon Accident
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DOI：
10.1021/es204569t
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发表时间：
2012-05-15
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Griffiths, Stewart K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Griffiths, Stewart K.
BP公司在墨西哥湾的Macondo Prospect油井，在深水地平线事故发生后的86天内，使用基于物理的模型以及防喷器（BOP）测量的井口压力，计算出了石油流量和累积排放量。模型中出现的参数是根据关井期间测量的压力和前一天测量的压力和流量经验确定的。该方法严格考虑了海洋立管的演化、收集帽的安装和拆卸以及井口的任何侵蚀。计算出的初始流量为6700桶/天（stbd），在安装封井装置和随后关井之前，该流量衰减至5400桶/天。经计算的累计排放量为540万桶，其中460万桶进入墨西哥湾。这些数值的可量化不确定性分别为-9.3%和+7.5%，因此总排放量可能在490万桶至580万桶之间。最小可信值和最大可信值分别为460万桶和620万桶。使用油藏和海底压力的替代计算表明，防喷器内的任何侵蚀对累积排放量的影响很小。
Oil flow rates and cumulative discharge from the BP Macondo Prospect well in the Gulf of Mexico are calculated using a physically based model along with wellhead pressures measured at the blowout preventer (BOP) over the 86-day period following the Deepwater Horizon accident. Parameters appearing in the model are determined empirically from pressures measured during well shut-in and from pressures and flow rates measured the preceding day. This methodology rigorously accounts for ill-characterized evolution of the marine riser, installation and removal of collection caps, and any erosion at the wellhead. The calculated initial flow rate is 67 100 stock-tank barrels per day (stbd), which decays to 54 400 stbd just prior to installation of the capping stack and subsequent shut-in. The calculated cumulative discharge is 5.4 million stock-tank barrels, of which 4.6 million barrels entered the Gulf. Quantifiable uncertainties in these values are -9.3% and +7.5%, yielding a likely total discharge in the range from 4.9 to 5.8 million barrels. Minimum and maximum credible values of this discharge are 4.6 and 6.2 million barrels. Alternative calculations using the reservoir and sea-floor pressures indicate that any erosion within the BOP had little affect on cumulative discharge.