Global burden of obesity in 2005 and projections to 2030
Global burden of obesity in 2005 and projections to 2030
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/ijo.2008.102
复制
发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
He, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kelly, T.;Yang, W.;He, J.
目的：估计2005年世界和各地区超重和肥胖的总体患病率和绝对负担，并预测2030年的全球负担。设计：汇总分析数据来源：我们在来自106个国家的代表性人群样本中确定了超重和肥胖的性别和年龄特异性患病率，这些国家约占世界人口的88%，使用MEDLINE和其他计算机数据库，辅以人工检索的参考文献检索article.Methods：性别和年龄特异性超重和肥胖的患病率应用于2005年人口，估计超重和肥胖的人数在每个国家，每个世界地区和整个世界。此外，将患病率（调整和不调整长期趋势）应用于2030年人口预测，以预测2030年超重和肥胖个体的数量。总的来说，百分之二十三点二（95%置信区间22.8-23.5%）的世界成年人口在2005年超重（男性24.0%（23.4-24.5%）和女性22.4%（21.9-22.9%）），9.8%（9.6-10.0%）肥胖（男性7.7%（7.4-7.9%）和女性11.9%（11.6-12.2%））。据估计，2005年超重和肥胖成年人的总人数分别为9.37亿（9229.51亿）和3.96亿（3.88 - 4.05亿）。到2030年，超重和肥胖成年人的人数预计分别为13.5亿和5.73亿，而不考虑长期趋势。如果最近的长期趋势继续有增无减，绝对数字预计将达到21.6亿超重和11.2亿肥胖individual.Conclusions：超重和肥胖是全球重要的临床和公共卫生负担。预防和治疗超重、肥胖及相关并发症和死亡的国家计划应该是公共卫生的优先事项。
Objectives: To estimate the overall prevalence and absolute burden of overweight and obesity in the world and in various regions in 2005 and to project the global burden in 2030.Design: Pooling analysisData Sources: We identified sex- and age-specific prevalence of overweight and obesity in representative population samples from 106 countries, which cover approximately 88% of the world population, using MEDLINE and other computerized databases, supplemented by a manual search of references from retrieved articles.Methods: Sex- and age-specific prevalence of overweight and obesity were applied to the 2005 population to estimate the numbers of overweight and obese individuals in each country, each world region and the entire world. In addition, the prevalence, with and without adjusting for secular trends, were applied to the 2030 population projections to forecast the number of overweight and obese individuals in 2030.Results: Overall, 23.2% (95% confidence interval 22.8-23.5%) of the world's adult population in 2005 was overweight (24.0% in men (23.4-24.5%) and 22.4% in women (21.9-22.9%)), and 9.8% (9.6-10.0%) was obese (7.7% in men (7.4-7.9%) and 11.9% in women (11.6-12.2%)). The estimated total numbers of overweight and obese adults in 2005 were 937 million ( 922 951 million) and 396 million (388-405 million), respectively. By 2030, the respective number of overweight and obese adults was projected to be 1.35 billion and 573 million individuals without adjusting for secular trends. If recent secular trends continue unabated, the absolute numbers were projected to total 2.16 billion overweight and 1.12 billion obese individuals.Conclusions: Overweight and obesity are important clinical and public health burdens worldwide. National programs for the prevention and treatment of overweight, obesity and related comorbidities and mortalities should be a public health priority.