Sinking deltas due to human activities
Sinking deltas due to human activities
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo629
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发表时间：
2009-10-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Nicholls, Robert J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Syvitski, James P. M.;Kettner, Albert J.;Nicholls, Robert J.
世界上许多最大的三角洲人口稠密，耕种繁多。然而，他们中的许多居民正变得越来越容易受到洪水的影响，他们的土地变成了开阔的海洋。这种脆弱性是沉积物压实的结果，这些沉积物来自三角洲底层沉积物中的石油、天然气和水的去除，上游储集层中的沉积物被困住，以及泛滥平原工程以及全球海平面上升。在这里，我们提出了33个三角洲的评估，这些三角洲被选为代表世界三角洲的代表。我们发现，在过去的十年中，85%的三角洲经历了严重的洪水，导致暂时淹没了26万公里(2)。我们保守地估计，根据目前对21世纪海平面上升的预测值，易受洪水影响的三角洲表面积可能会增加50%。如果上游沉积物的捕获持续存在，并继续阻止三角洲的生长和缓冲，这一数字可能会增加。
Many of the world's largest deltas are densely populated and heavily farmed. Yet many of their inhabitants are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding and conversions of their land to open ocean. The vulnerability is a result of sediment compaction from the removal of oil, gas and water from the delta's underlying sediments, the trapping of sediment in reservoirs upstream and floodplain engineering in combination with rising global sea level. Here we present an assessment of 33 deltas chosen to represent the world's deltas. We find that in the past decade, 85% of the deltas experienced severe flooding, resulting in the temporary submergence of 260,000 km(2). We conservatively estimate that the delta surface area vulnerable to flooding could increase by 50% under the current projected values for sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. This figure could increase if the capture of sediment upstream persists and continues to prevent the growth and buffering of the deltas.