Maladaptation, migration and extirpation fuel climate change risk in a forest tree species
Maladaptation, migration and extirpation fuel climate change risk in a forest tree species
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-00968-6
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发表时间：
2021-01-18
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gougherty, Andrew V.;Keller, Stephen R.;Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.
考虑人口层面的适应和迁移仍然是预测气候变化对生物多样性影响的核心挑战。评估气候变化如何破坏当地的气候适应，导致适应不良和可能的灭绝，可以告知气候变化对物种范围构成最大风险的地方。对于森林树种香脂白杨（杨树），我们使用气候相关的遗传基因座来预测人口适应不良与迁移和不迁移，距离的网站，最大限度地减少适应不良，并出现新的基因型气候协会。我们发现，当代基因型气候协会的最大破坏发生在沿着纵向边缘的范围内，人口预计将不适应所有未来的北美气候，通过迁移的救援是最有限的和新的基因型气候协会出现。我们的工作超越了物种水平的范围建模，朝着长期目标迈进，即同时估计适应不良和迁移的贡献，以了解人口可能面临的气候变化风险。
Accounting for population-level adaptation and migration remains a central challenge to predicting climate change effects on biodiversity. Assessing how climate change could disrupt local climate adaptation, resulting in maladaptation and possibly extirpation, can inform where climate change poses the greatest risks across species ranges. For the forest tree species balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera), we used climate-associated genetic loci to predict population maladaptation with and without migration, the distance to sites that minimize maladaptation, and the emergence of novel genotype-climate associations. We show that the greatest disruptions to contemporary genotype-climate associations occur along the longitudinal edges of the range, where populations are predicted to be maladapted to all future North American climates, rescue via migration is most limited and novel genotype-climate associations emerge. Our work advances beyond species-level range modelling towards the long-held goal of simultaneously estimating the contributions of maladaptation and migration to understanding the risks that populations may face from shifting climates.