Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review
Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.11.011
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Fan, Shu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hong, Tao;Fan, Shu
负荷预测自电力工业诞生以来一直是一个基本的商业问题。在过去的100多年里，这一领域的研究工作和行业实践主要集中在点负荷预测上。然而，在最近十年中，市场竞争加剧，基础设施老化和可再生能源集成需求意味着概率负荷预测对能源系统规划和运营变得越来越重要。本文介绍了概率电力负荷预测的主要技术、方法和评价方法，以及常见的误区。我们还强调需要投资于额外的研究，如可重复的案例研究，概率负荷预测评估和估值，以及在概率负荷预测过程中考虑新兴技术和能源政策。(C)2015年国际预测协会。Elsevier B.V.出版，保留所有权利。
Load forecasting has been a fundamental business problem since the inception of the electric power industry. Over the past 100 plus years, both research efforts and industry practices in this area have focused primarily on point load forecasting. In the most recent decade, though, the increased market competition, aging infrastructure and renewable integration requirements mean that probabilistic load forecasting has become more and more important to energy systems planning and operations. This paper offers a tutorial review of probabilistic electric load forecasting, including notable techniques, methodologies and evaluation methods, and common misunderstandings. We also underline the need to invest in additional research, such as reproducible case studies, probabilistic load forecast evaluation and valuation, and a consideration of emerging technologies and energy policies in the probabilistic load forecasting process. (C) 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.