“Certain Death” from Storm Surge: A Comparative Study of Household Responses to Warnings about Hurricanes Rita and Ike
“Certain Death” from Storm Surge: A Comparative Study of Household Responses to Warnings about Hurricanes Rita and Ike
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风暴潮带来的“必死无疑”：家庭对飓风丽塔和艾克警报反应的比较研究
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发表时间：
2014
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Carla S. Prater
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文献类型：
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作者：
Hung;M. Lindell;Carla S. Prater
摘要这项研究考察了一条不寻常的“确定死亡”警告信息对加尔维斯顿、哈里斯和德克萨斯州杰斐逊县居民在飓风艾克期间对风暴潮破坏的预期和疏散决定的影响。通过将艾克飓风后收集的问卷数据与3年前丽塔飓风后收集的类似数据进行比较，测试了这一信息的效果。如果确定死亡的消息产生了影响，人们会预料到对两个风暴激增威胁的感知没有显著差异，因为2级风暴(艾克)的激增更像是5级风暴(丽塔)的特征。然而，在登陆地点加尔维斯顿县，艾克的风暴潮威胁评级明显低于丽塔。此外，在所有三个县中，艾克的疏散率一直低于丽塔的疏散率，在预期风暴潮破坏与疏散决策的相关性上，风暴之间没有统计学上的显著差异。
AbstractThis study examines the effect of an unusual “certain death” warning message on Galveston, Harris, and Jefferson County, Texas, residents’ expectations of storm surge damage and evacuation decisions during Hurricane Ike. The effect of this message was tested by comparing questionnaire data collected after Hurricane Ike to similar data collected 3 yr earlier after Hurricane Rita. If the certain death message had an effect, one would expect nonsignificant differences in perceptions of the two storms’ surge threats because the category 2 storm (Ike) had a surge that was more characteristic of a category 5 storm (Rita). However, the ratings of the storm surge threat for Ike were significantly lower than those for Rita in Galveston County—the point of landfall. Moreover, evacuation rates for Ike were consistently lower than those for Rita in all three counties, and there were no statistically significant differences between storms in the correlations of expected storm surge damage with evacuation decis...