The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western US: A Crowd-Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams
The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western US: A Crowd-Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams
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DOI：
10.1002/2017wr020969
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发表时间：
2017-11-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Parkes-Payne, Sharon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Isaak, Daniel J.;Wenger, Seth J.;Parkes-Payne, Sharon
温度状况是水生生态系统的基本决定因素，这使得在全球快速变化期间对温度的描述和预测至关重要。近几十年来，廉价温度传感器的出现显着增加了监测，尽管大多数监测是由个人出于特定机构的目的进行的，但这些努力共同构成了一个大规模的分布式传感阵列，产生了大量未开发的数据。使用国家水文数据集提供的框架，我们组织了来自美国西部数十个机构的温度记录，创建了NorWeST数据库，该数据库包含来自> 22，700个溪流和河流站点的> 220，000，000个温度记录。空间流网络模型与描述63，641个监测点-年期间8月平均水温（AugTw）的数据子集进行拟合，以开发准确的温度模型（r（2）=0.91; RMSPE=1.10摄氏度; MAPE=0.72摄氏度），评估协变量效应，并以1 km的间隔进行预测，以创建夏季气候情景。在1993-2011年的基线期间，343，000公里的西部常年河流的AugTw平均为14.2摄氏度（SD=4.0摄氏度），但趋势重建也表明，在1976-2015年的40年期间，变暖的速度为0.17摄氏度/十年（SD=0.067摄氏度/十年）。未来的情景表明持续变暖，尽管由于当地气候强迫和河流响应的差异，河流网络内部和之间会发生变化。NorWeST方案和数据以用户友好的数字格式在线提供，并广泛用于协调机构之间的监测工作，用于新的研究和保护规划。
Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency-specific purposes, collectively these efforts constitute a massive distributed sensing array that generates an untapped wealth of data. Using the framework provided by the National Hydrography Dataset, we organized temperature records from dozens of agencies in the western U.S. to create the NorWeST database that hosts >220,000,000 temperature recordings from >22,700 stream and river sites. Spatial-stream-network models were fit to a subset of those data that described mean August water temperatures (AugTw) during 63,641 monitoring site-years to develop accurate temperature models (r(2)=0.91; RMSPE=1.10 degrees C; MAPE=0.72 degrees C), assess covariate effects, and make predictions at 1 km intervals to create summer climate scenarios. AugTw averaged 14.2 degrees C (SD=4.0 degrees C) during the baseline period of 1993-2011 in 343,000 km of western perennial streams but trend reconstructions also indicated warming had occurred at the rate of 0.17 degrees C/decade (SD=0.067 degrees C/decade) during the 40 year period of 1976-2015. Future scenarios suggest continued warming, although variation will occur within and among river networks due to differences in local climate forcing and stream responsiveness. NorWeST scenarios and data are available online in user-friendly digital formats and are widely used to coordinate monitoring efforts among agencies, for new research, and for conservation planning.\