Modeling the Dynamics of Sediment Transport, Tides, and Sea-Level Rise: Implications for the Resilience of Coastal Bengal
Modeling the Dynamics of Sediment Transport, Tides, and Sea-Level Rise: Implications for the Resilience of Coastal Bengal
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DOI：
10.1109/wsc60868.2023.10407393
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发表时间：
2023-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. M. Tasich;Jonathan M. Gilligan;G. Hornberger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. M. Tasich;Jonathan M. Gilligan;G. Hornberger
恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳河 (GBM) 三角洲沿海地区被广泛认为是最容易受到海平面上升 (SLR) 影响的地区之一，约有 5700 万人生活在海平面 5 m 以内。恒河、布拉马普特拉河和梅格纳河输送的沉积物有可能抬高土地并抵消 SLR。未来沉积物供应和SLR存在很大的不确定性，这引发了人们对三角洲可持续性的质疑。我们提出了一个由基础物理学驱动的简单模型，以较低的计算成本估计不同条件下景观的演变。使用单个调整参数，该模型可以匹配观测到的土地退化率。我们发现了强烈的负反馈，它有力地使陆地海拔与海平面的变化达到平衡。我们讨论如何使用该模型来研究沉积物输送的动态和 GBM 三角洲的可持续性。
The coastal zone of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta is widely recognized as one of the most vulnerable places to sea-level rise (SLR), with around 57 million people living within 5 m of sea level. Sediment transported by the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers has the potential to raise the land and offset SLR. There is significant uncertainty in future sediment supply and SLR, which raises questions about the sustainability of the delta. We present a simple model, driven by basic physics, to estimate the evolution of the landscape under different conditions at low computational cost. Using a single tuning parameter, the model can match observed rates of land aggradation. We find a strong negative feedback, which robustly brings land elevation into equilibrium with changing sea level. We discuss how this model can be used to investigate the dynamics of sediment transport and the sustainability of the GBM Delta.