CRIMES, CRIME RATES, ARRESTS, AND ARREST RATIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DETERRENCE THEORY*
CRIMES, CRIME RATES, ARRESTS, AND ARREST RATIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DETERRENCE THEORY*
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犯罪、犯罪率、逮捕和逮捕比率：对威慑理论的影响*
DOI：
10.1111/j.1745-9125.1985.tb00349.x
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发表时间：
1985
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
C. Kohfeld
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Scott H. Decker;C. Kohfeld
犯罪与逮捕的关系是威慑理论的核心问题之一。在试图评估逮捕是否遏制犯罪或犯罪数量决定逮捕数量时，存在若干概念上的困难。当利率被用来衡量这两个变量时，这些问题就变得复杂了。问题是罪犯是对逮捕作出反应，还是警察对犯罪的变化作出反应。目前的分析比较回归结果时，变量的测量率和原始数字的三种罪行：杀人，抢劫和入室盗窃。结果表明，逮捕是在犯罪之后进行的。这表明有必要重新审视一些研究，这些研究认为，罪犯对逮捕率的看法是威慑的一个指标。
The relationship between crimes and arrests is one of the central issues in deterrence theory. There are several conceptual difficulties in attempting to assess whether arrests deter crimes or the number of crimes determine the number of arrests. These problems are compounded when rates are used to measure both variables. The issue is whether criminals respond to arrests or the police respond to changes in crime. The present analysis compares regression results when the variables are measured both as rates and raw numbers for three offenses: homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results indicate that arrests follow crimes. This suggests the need to reexamine some studies that argue that criminals’perceptions of arrest rates are an indication of deterrence.