Would climate change drive species out of reserves?: An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods
Would climate change drive species out of reserves?: An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x
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发表时间：
2004-09-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Williams, PH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Araújo, MB;Cabeza, M;Williams, PH
对气候变化的关注尚未纳入保护区选择协议。然而，如果气候变化如预测的那样，当前的保护区选择方法可能提供的解决方案不足以确保物种在保护区内的长期持续存在。我们首次评估了现有保护区选择方法在气候变化背景下保护物种的能力。六种方法使用不同的标准组合（代表性，适用性和储量聚类）进行了比较。评估是使用欧洲分布的1200种植物物种，并考虑两个极端的情况下，应对气候变化：没有扩散和普遍扩散。根据我们的数据，6%-11%的模拟物种可能会在50年内从选定的保护区中消失。测量的不确定性在6%之间变化，其中1-3%归因于分散假设，2-5%归因于储备选择方法的选择。合适的方法储备选择表现最好，而储备聚类表现不佳。我们还发现，5%的模拟物种将失去其整个气候信封在研究区域; 2%的模拟物种将有不重叠的分布; 93%的模拟物种将保持不同程度的重叠分布。我们的结论是有机会尽量减少物种的保护区内，但需要新的方法来解释气候变化对物种的影响，特别是那些预计有时间上不重叠的分布。
Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6-11% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50-year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6% being 1-3% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2-5% to the choice of reserve-selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.