Characterizing post-industrial changes in the ocean carbon cycle in an Earth system model
Characterizing post-industrial changes in the ocean carbon cycle in an Earth system model
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00461.x
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发表时间：
2010-01
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Katsumi Matsumoto;K. Tokos;M. Chikamoto;A. Ridgwell
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文献类型：
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作者：
Katsumi Matsumoto;K. Tokos;M. Chikamoto;A. Ridgwell
了解海洋从大气中吸收碳的情况对于更好地限制全球预算以及预测空气传播的二氧化碳排放量和气候变化程度至关重要。理解这一点是困难的，因为“自然”碳循环，即全球碳循环中不受二氧化碳排放影响的部分，也会对气候变化和海洋酸化做出反应。使用一个中等复杂性的全球气候模型，我们评估了未来几个世纪自然碳循环的演变。我们发现，物理机制，特别是大西洋纬向翻转环流和气体溶解度，改变自然碳循环的最，并导致整体海洋碳吸收显着减少。重要的生物机制包括由于营养供应减少而减少有机碳输出生产，由于温度升高而增加有机碳生产，以及由于海洋酸化增加而减少CaCO3生产。一个大的集合模型实验表明，在海洋吸收预测在不久的将来的不确定性的最重要的来源是上层海洋垂直扩散系数和气体交换系数。到2300年，随着全球变暖的继续，模型的气候敏感性取代了这两个因素，成为主导因素。
Understanding the oceanic uptake of carbon from the atmosphere is essential for better constraining the global budget, as well as for predicting the air-borne fraction of CO2 emissions and thus degree of climate change. Gaining this understanding is difficult, because the ‘natural’ carbon cycle, the part of the global carbon cycle unaltered by CO2 emissions, also responds to climate change and ocean acidification. Using a global climate model of intermediate complexity, we assess the evolution of the natural carbon cycle over the next few centuries. We find that physical mechanisms, particularly Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and gas solubility, alter the natural carbon cycle the most and lead to a significant reduction in the overall oceanic carbon uptake. Important biological mechanisms include reduced organic carbon export production due to reduced nutrient supply, increased organic carbon production due to higher temperatures and reduced CaCO3 production due to increased ocean acidification. A large ensemble of model experiments indicates that the most important source of uncertainty in ocean uptake projections in the near term future are the upper ocean vertical diffusivity and gas exchange coefficient. By year 2300, the model’s climate sensitivity replaces these two and becomes the dominant factor as global warming continues.