Contribution of changes in incidence and mortality to trends in the prevalence of coronary heart disease in the UK: 1996-2005
Contribution of changes in incidence and mortality to trends in the prevalence of coronary heart disease in the UK: 1996-2005
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DOI：
10.1093/eurheartj/ehm272
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发表时间：
2007-09-01
影响因子：
39.3
通讯作者：
Grundy, Emily Marjatta Dorothea
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davies, Alisha Ruth;Smeeth, Liam;Grundy, Emily Marjatta Dorothea
目的评估冠心病(CHD)发病率和死亡率的趋势对英国冠心病患病率的影响。方法与结果利用35岁及以上人群的计算机全科临床记录进行时间趋势分析。从1996年到2005年，男性和女性的年龄标化冠心病发病率每年分别下降2.2%和2.3%(平均百分比变化)。在冠心病患者中，年龄标准化的全原因死亡率每年下降男性4.5%和女性3.4%(平均百分比变化)。年龄标化患病率男性每年增加1.3%，女性每年增加1.7%(平均百分比变化)。虽然发病率的下降对限制发病率的增长有一定的影响，但其影响被冠心病患者生存改善导致的发病率上升所抵消。结论冠心病患者死亡率的降低是发病率上升的主要原因。即使CHD的发病率继续下降，患病率也可能进一步上升。
Aims To assess how trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality rates among people with CHD have affected the prevalence of CHD in the UK.Methods and results A time trend analysis using computerized general practice clinical records of people aged 35 years and over was performed. From 1996 to 2005, age-standardized incidence of CHD decreased by 2.2% in men and 2.3% in women per year (average percentage change). Age-standardized all-cause mortality among those with CHD decreased by 4.5% in men and 3.4% in women per year (average percentage change). Age-standardized prevalence increased by 1.3% in men and 1.7% in women per year (average percentage change). Although the decline in incidence had some impact on limiting the increase in prevalence, its effect was offset by the increase in prevalence occurring as a result of improved survival among people with CHD.Conclusion The results suggest that increasing prevalence is largely due to decreasing mortality among people with CHD. Further increases in prevalence are likely even if the incidence of CHD continues to fall.