Plastics materials flow analysis for India
Plastics materials flow analysis for India
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2005.09.003
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发表时间：
2006-06-01
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Premnath, V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mutha, NH;Patel, M;Premnath, V
预测材料流动对于就废物管理问题制定健全的政策至关重要。本文介绍了印度塑料材料流动分析（MFA）的结果。近年来，印度的塑料消费量大幅增长，塑料废物的产量也在增加。聚烯烃占印度塑料消费总量的60%。包装是主要的塑料消费部门，占总消费量的42%，其次是消费品和建筑行业。在几个国家观察到的塑料消费与国内生产总值之间的关系被用来估计未来的塑料消费（主曲线）。确定了印度过去和今后30年的个人物质增长相对于国内生产总值的弹性，从而假定印度的发展与西欧相当。在此基础上，预计2000年至2030年间塑料消费总量将增长6倍。各种最终产品的消耗量与其相应的寿命相结合，以计算总废物量。塑料制品的加权平均寿命计算为8年。目前，印度产生的塑料废物总量中有47%被回收利用;这远远高于大多数其他国家的回收利用比例。仅回收部门就雇用了与塑料加工部门一样多的人，塑料加工部门雇用的人比塑料制造部门多八倍。由于长寿命产品在经济中的份额越来越大，因此产生的废物量也越来越大，在未来三十年内，回收的份额将下降到35%。到2030年，可供处置的废物总量（不包括回收）将从目前的130万吨增加至少10倍。(c)2005 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Forecasting material flows is essential for sound policy making on issues relating to waste management. This paper presents the results of the plastics materials flow analysis (MFA) for India. In the recent past, India has witnessed a substantial growth in the consumption of plastics and an increased production of plastic waste. Polyolefins account for the major share of 60% in the total plastics consumption in India. Packaging is the major plastics consuming sector, with 42% of the total consumption, followed by consumer products and the construction industry. The relationship observed between plastic consumption and the gross domestic product for several countries was used to estimate future plastics consumption (master curve). Elasticities of the individual material growth with respect to GDP were established for the past and for the next three decades estimated for India thereby assuming a development comparable with that of Western Europe. On this basis, the total plastics consumption is projected to grow by a factor of 6 between 2000 and 2030. The consumption of various end products is combined with their corresponding lifetimes to calculate the total waste quantities. The weighted average lifetime of plastics products was calculated as 8 years. Forty-seven percent of the total plastics waste generated is currently recycled in India; this is much higher than the share of recycling in most of the other countries. The recycling sector alone employs as many people as the plastics processing sector, which employs about eight times more people than the plastics manufacturing sector. Due to the increasing share of long-life products in the economy, and consequently in the volume of waste generated, the share of recycling will decrease to 35% over the next three decades. The total waste available for disposal (excluding recycling) will increase at least 10-fold up to the year 2030 from its current level of 1.3 million tonnes. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.