COVID-19 and Flu Pandemics Follow a Pattern: A Possible Cross-immunity in the Pandemic Origin and Graver Disease in Farther Regions.
COVID-19 and Flu Pandemics Follow a Pattern: A Possible Cross-immunity in the Pandemic Origin and Graver Disease in Farther Regions.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.arcmed.2020.10.012
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Mojtahedi Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bolourian A;Mojtahedi Z
到目前为止，与世界其他地区相比，新冠肺炎疫情在东亚地区造成的伤亡人数较少。在上个世纪的三次主要流感大流行中，也观察到了大流行源头伤亡人数较少的模式。有理由推测，新冠肺炎/流感在大流行源头造成的伤亡较少，可能是因为对一些密切病毒的先前存在的交叉免疫在这些地区更流行。专家和建模人员应该扩大类似流感的病毒流行的严重程度，以预测其对世界其他地区的真正严重程度。
So far, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused less casualty in Eastern Asia areas compared to the other parts of the world. The pattern of less casualty in the pandemic origin has also been observed in the three main flu pandemics in the last century. It is reasonable to speculate that less casualty of COVID-19/flu in the pandemic origin is likely due to the preexisting cross-immunity to some close viruses being more prevalent in those regions. Experts and modelers should scale up the severity of a flu-like viral epidemic to predict its real severity for the rest of the world.
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