Calibration: A Frequency Justification for Personal Probability
Calibration: A Frequency Justification for Personal Probability
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校准：个人概率的频率合理性
DOI：
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发表时间：
1983
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. V. Fraassen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. V. Fraassen
如果一个物理理论说，在某些条件下，某一事件的概率是这样或那样的，我们自然会认为这是对客观事实的陈述，是对世界方式的描述。我们预计，如果情况确实如此，这一事实将反映在所述事件的发生频率上。所谓概率的频率解释有更多的用意：也就是说，这样的概率理论实际上只是关于实际发生的频率。
If a physical theory states that the probability of some event, under certain conditions, is thus or so, we naturally take that to be a statement of objective fact, descriptive of the way the world is. And we expect that fact, if it is indeed the case, to be reflected in frequencies of occurrence among the described events. What is called the frequency interpretation of probability intends something more: namely, that such a probabilistic theory is reallyonlyabout actual frequencies of occurrence.1