Tailored Forecasts Can Predict Extreme Climate Informing Proactive Interventions in East Africa-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1029/2023ef003524

发表时间：

2023-07

期刊：

Earth's Future

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

其他

文献类型：

作者：

C. Funk;L. Harrison;Z. Segele;T. Rosenstock;P. Steward;C. L. Anderson;Erin Coughlan de Perez;Daniel Maxwell;H. S. Endris;Eunice Koch;G. Artan;Fetene Teshome;S. Aura;G. Galu;D. Korecha;Weston Anderson;A. Hoell;Kerstin Damerau;E. Williams;Aniruddha Ghosh;J. Ramirez-Villegas;David Hughes

本评论讨论了东非降雨可预测性方面的新进展，并强调了改进早期预警系统、人道主义救援工作和农业决策的潜力。在经历了前所未有的五次干旱之后，2300万东非人在2022年面临饥荒，需要20亿美元的援助。在这里，我们更新了气候归因研究，表明这些干旱是气候变化和La Niña相互作用的结果。然后，我们首次描述了如何将基于归因的见解与最新的动态模型相结合，以8个月的提前期预测干旱。然后，我们讨论了预测使用的行为和社会障碍，并回顾了研究EWS如何可能（或可能不）增强农牧咨询和人道主义干预的文献。最后，针对新的世界气象组织“全民预警”执行行动计划，我们提出了一套建议，支持可操作和权威的气候服务。信任、紧迫性和准确性可以帮助克服由有限的资金、不确定的权衡和惰性造成的障碍。了解气候变化如何产生可预测的极端气候，投资于非洲主导的气候预警系统，以及在气候预警系统与农业发展工作之间建立更好的联系，可以支持长期适应，减少对数十亿美元被动援助的长期需求。在非洲及其他地区，气候变化带来了越来越极端的海表温度梯度。利用气候模型，我们经常可以看到这些极端天气的到来。因此，如果我们能够通过跨部门合作建立有效的社会联系，预测将为前瞻性风险管理和改进咨询服务提供机会。

This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision‐making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, 23 million east Africans faced starvation in 2022, requiring >$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution‐based insights can be combined with the latest dynamical models to predict droughts at 8‐month lead‐times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to forecast use, and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro‐pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization “Early Warning for All” Executive Action Plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations supporting actionable and authoritative climate services. Trust, urgency, and accuracy can help overcome barriers created by limited funding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia. Understanding how climate change is producing predictable climate extremes now, investing in African‐led EWS, and building better links between EWS and agricultural development efforts can support long‐term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of dollars in reactive assistance. In Africa and beyond, climate change brings increasingly extreme sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. Using climate models, we can often see these extremes coming. Prediction, therefore, offers opportunities for proactive risk management and improved advisory services, if we can create effective societal linkages via cross‐silo collaborations.

Tailored Forecasts Can Predict Extreme Climate Informing Proactive Interventions in East Africa

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