Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective
Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0605726103
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发表时间：
2006-10-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Leatherman, S. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kates, R. W.;Colten, C. E.;Leatherman, S. P.
从60年的自然灾害和重建研究中得出的四个命题，为卡特里娜飓风后新奥尔良的重建提供了一个比较和历史的视角。新奥尔良在其288年的历史上做出的决定，使其如此容易受到卡特里娜飓风的影响，反映了社会对灾害事件做出的长期反应模式--减少相对频繁事件的后果，增加对非常大和罕见事件的脆弱性。因此，卡特里娜飓风对新奥尔良造成的后果确实是灾难性的--路易斯安那州居民估计死亡1570人，经济损失400-500亿美元，其中大部分是卡特里娜飓风造成的。恢复的比较顺序和时间安排提供了一份历史经验日历，用以衡量重建进展情况。使用这一日历，灾后紧急时期的持续时间似乎比任何其他研究的灾难都要长。恢复期，即为较少人口恢复城市服务所需的时间，符合或领先于历史经验。重建自然环境和城市基础设施的努力可能需要8-11年的时间。重建快速恢复、安全、改善和公平的政策目标相互矛盾已经很明显。所采取的行动表明了人们急于重建熟悉的环境，而不是强调改善的规划努力。由于灾难往往会加速现有的经济、社会和政治趋势，卡特里娜飓风过后在住房、人口和就业方面的巨大损失可能会持续下去，充其量只能部分恢复。然而，摆脱这一黯淡轨迹的可能性是可行的，并具有一定的历史先例。
Four propositions drawn from 60 years of natural hazard and reconstruction research provide a comparative and historical perspective on the reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Decisions taken over its 288-year history that have made New Orleans so vulnerable to Katrina reflect a long-term pattern of societal response to hazard events-reducing consequences to relatively frequent events, and increasing vulnerability to very large and rare events. Thus Katrina's consequences for New Orleans were truly catastrophic-accounting for most of the estimated 1,570 deaths of Louisiana residents and $40-50 billion in monetary losses. A comparative sequence and timing of recovery provides a calendar of historical experience against which to gauge progress in reconstruction. Using this calendar, the emergency postdisaster period appears to be longer in duration than that of any other studied disaster. The restoration period, the time taken to restore urban services for the smaller population, is in keeping with or ahead of historical experience. The effort to reconstruct the physical environment and urban infrastructure is likely to take 8-11 years. Conflicting policy goals for reconstruction of rapid recovery, safety, betterment, and equity are already evident. Actions taken demonstrate the rush to rebuild the familiar in contrast to planning efforts that emphasize betterment. Because disasters tend to accelerate existing economic, social, and political trends, the large losses in housing, population, and employment after Katrina are likely to persist and, at best, only partly recover. However, the possibility of breaking free of this gloomy trajectory is feasible and has some historical precedent.