Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957-2016)
Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957-2016)
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-18-0565.1
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Sheng-Hung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Megan E.;Bromvvich, David H.;Wang, Sheng-Hung
过去几十年来，南极洲各地的温度趋势显示，南极洲西部和南极半岛（美联社）的变暖在统计上是强烈的，而南极洲东部总体上没有显著变化。然而，最近的研究记录了自20世纪90年代末以来AP的冷却。本研究旨在通过分析自1957年以来南半球外热带地区每月基于站的表面温度观测，沿着与海表温度（SST）数据和平均海平面气压再分析数据，将AP和南极洲西部的温度变化置于更大的空间和时间视角。结果证实，自1999年以来，整个AP地区的观测站和SST趋势在统计上显着降温。然而，整个60年期间显示，南半球中高纬度地区的大部分地区都出现了统计上显著的普遍变暖。正的SST趋势广泛地反映了这些变暖趋势，特别是在中纬度地区。在确认南半球环形模态（SAM）对南半球高纬度气候变率的重要性后，从台站温度记录中去除了这种影响，揭示了南半球所有热带外区域的统计学显著背景变暖。然后研究了耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第5阶段的一套气候模式中的南极温度趋势。与以前的工作一致，CMIP5模型以比观测快2倍的背景温度速率使南极洲变暖。然而，从CMIP 5和观测到的温度中去除SAM的影响，导致南极趋势仅略有不同，这可能是由于观测中存在自然的多年代际变化。
Temperature trends across Antarctica over the last few decades reveal strong and statistically significant warming in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) contrasting with no significant change overall in East Antarctica. However, recent studies have documented cooling in the AP since the late 1990s. This study aims to place temperature changes in the AP and West Antarctica into a larger spatial and temporal perspective by analyzing monthly station-based surface temperature observations since 1957 across the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, along with sea surface temperature (SST) data and mean sea level pressure reanalysis data. The results confirm statistically significant cooling in station observations and SST trends throughout the AP region since 1999. However, the full 60-yr period shows statistically significant, widespread warming across most of the Southern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. Positive SST trends broadly reflect these warming trends, especially in the midlatitudes. After confirming the importance of the southern annular mode (SAM) on southern high-latitude climate variability, the influence is removed from the station temperature records, revealing statistically significant background warming across all of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere. Antarctic temperature trends in a suite of climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are then investigated. Consistent with previous work the CMIP5 models warm Antarctica at the background temperature rate that is 2 times faster than that observed. However, removing the SAM influence from both CMIP5 and observed temperatures results in Antarctic trends that differ only modestly, perhaps due to natural multidecadal variability remaining in the observations.