Tropical cyclone frequency: turning paleoclimate into projections
Tropical cyclone frequency: turning paleoclimate into projections
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DOI：
10.1088/2752-5295/aca785
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发表时间：
2022-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Wallace;S. Dee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Wallace;S. Dee
热带气旋（TC）气候的未来变化有可能对沿海社区的社会和经济景观产生巨大影响。古气候建模和古飓风代理开发提供了令人兴奋的机会，了解TC属性（如频率）如何在长时间尺度上响应气候变率而变化。然而，在代理采样偏差，很难确定是否在古飓风记录的信号是与气候变率或只是随机性。短期观测和模拟偏差使TC模型无法捕捉到气候变率和TC特征的全部范围。这两种数据类型的集成可以帮助解决这些不确定性。在古风暴学中进行强有力的数据模型比较将需要（a）使用新的古气候数据同化产品和气候模型集合模拟TC，（B）建立一个开放获取的古飓风代理中心库，（c）汇编古飓风记录，以及（d）填补现有古飓风网络中的关键空白。将来自古飓风代理和古热带气旋模拟的综合信息纳入沿海社区的风险评估，有助于改进适应战略。
Future changes to tropical cyclone (TC) climate have the potential to dramatically impact the social and economic landscape of coastal communities. Paleoclimate modeling and paleohurricane proxy development offer exciting opportunities to understand how TC properties (like frequency) change in response to climate variability on long time scales. However, sampling biases in proxies make it difficult to ascertain whether signals in paleohurricane records are related to climate variability or just stochasticity. Short observations and simulation biases prevent TC models from capturing the full range of climate variability and TC characteristics. Integration of these two data types can help address these uncertainties. Robust data model comparison in paleotempestology will require (a) simulating TCs using new paleoclimate data assimilation products and climate model ensembles, (b) building a central repository of open access paleohurricane proxies, (c) compiling paleohurricane records, and (d) filling key gaps in the existing paleohurricane networks. Incorporating the combined information from both paleohurricane proxies and paleo TC simulations into risk assessments for coastal communities could help improve adaptation strategies.