Statistical and fractal features of the flood and drought disasters in Xinjiang from 1950 to 1997
Statistical and fractal features of the flood and drought disasters in Xinjiang from 1950 to 1997
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作者：
Jiang Feng
新疆地处内陆，远离海洋，以气候干旱著称。该地区自然灾害频发。这里最严重的自然灾害是旱灾，受灾面积广，持续时间长，春旱严重。新疆虽然以沙漠广袤、雨量少而闻名，但这里每年也会发生洪涝灾害。几十年来，频繁发生的自然灾害，特别是干旱和洪水，给该地区造成了许多财产和生命损失。近几十年来，该地区的旱涝灾害有扩大的趋势，这与中国和世界上发生的旱涝灾害是一致的。许多研究者对这一现象给予了特别的关注。新疆水旱灾害的一般特征研究取得了一些重要进展。然而，水旱灾害时间序列的统计和分维特征目前尚不清楚。因此，本文以新疆1950-1997年水旱灾害影响的统计数据为基础，对时间序列的统计和分维特征进行了研究。结果表明，洪旱灾害时间序列具有分维特征，洪涝灾害分维D2为3.75，干旱分维D2为3.65。所得结论将为新疆水旱灾害的减灾提供科学依据。
Located in inland and far from oceans, Xinjiang is well known for its arid climate. Natural disasters occur frequently in this region. The most serious natural disaster here is droughts characterized by the vast effected area, long duration, and serious spring drought. Although Xinjiang is famous for its extensive desert and little rainfall, the flood calamities also occur here every year. Frequently occurred natural disasters, especially droughts and floods have damaged lots of properties and lives in the past decades in this region. In recent decades, there is a magnifying trend of the drought and flood calamities in this region, which is concordant with that occurring in China and in the world. Many researchers have paid their special attention to this phenomenon. Some important progresses have been gained on the researches of the general features of the flood and drought disasters occurring in Xinjiang. However, the statistical and fractal features of the timeseries of flood and drought disasters are unknown at present. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to examine the statistical and fractal characteristics of the timeseries, based on some statistical data on the effects of flood and drought disasters occurred in Xinjiang from 1950 to 1997. The results show that the temporal series of the flood and drought disasters have the fractal features with the fractal dimensions D2 being 3.75 for flood disasters and 3.65 for droughts, respectively. The obtained conclusions will be a scientific basis for the flood and drought disasters mitigation in Xinjiang.