Uncertainty in silicate mineral weathering rate estimates: source partitioning and policy implications
Uncertainty in silicate mineral weathering rate estimates: source partitioning and policy implications
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硅酸盐矿物风化率估计的不确定性：来源划分和政策影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Köhler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Futter;J. Klaminder;R. W. Lucas;H. Laudon;S. Köhler
在为长期森林可持续性、临界负荷计算和评估拟议的地球工程解决方案对气候变化的影响制定政策目标时，对硅酸盐矿物风化率的精确和准确估计至关重要。在本文中，我们仔细研究了来自三大洲82个地点的394个硅酸盐矿物风化估计。我们发现，当使用不同的方法来估计风化率，主要是由于与输入数据，而不是概念上不同的观点的风化过程的不确定性，网站内的差异出现了百分之几百。虽然不同的方法往往从高到低的风化率一致的网站排名，在估计风化率的网站内的巨大差异表明，依赖于基于单一方法的定量估计的政策可能会有不良的结果。我们建议在做出与硅酸盐矿物风化速率相关的管理决策时，至少使用三个独立的估计。
Precise and accurate estimates of silicate mineral weathering rates are crucial when setting policy targets for long-term forest sustainability, critical load calculations and assessing consequences of proposed geo-engineering solutions to climate change. In this paper, we scrutinize 394 individual silicate mineral weathering estimates from 82 sites on three continents. We show that within-site differences of several hundred per cent arise when different methods are used to estimate weathering rates, mainly as a result of uncertainties related to input data rather than conceptually different views of the weathering process. While different methods tend to rank sites congruently from high to low weathering rates, large within-site differences in estimated weathering rate suggest that policies relying on quantitative estimates based upon a single method may have undesirable outcomes. We recommend the use of at least three independent estimates when making management decisions related to silicate mineral weathering rates.