Synchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability
Synchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aaw1976
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
You, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, W. B.;Seager, R.;You, L.
大规模的气候变化模式可能导致普遍的作物产量异常，因此往往被视为对粮食安全的一种风险。我们量化了气候变化模式对作物产量变化的影响。我们发现，厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO），印度洋偶极子（IOD），热带大西洋的变化（TAV），和北大西洋涛动（NAO）一起占全球合计玉米，大豆和小麦产量的变化，分别为18%，7%和6%。全球范围内大豆和小麦产量变异的较小部分是由大量但相互抵消的气候强迫生产异常造成的。所有的气候模式都是重要的，至少在一个地区的研究。1983年，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动是唯一能够迫使全球同步作物歉收的模式，造成了现代历史记录中最大的同步作物歉收。我们的研究结果为监测和潜在预测同时发生的作物歉收提供了基础。
Large-scale modes of climate variability can force widespread crop yield anomalies and are therefore often presented as a risk to food security. We quantify how modes of climate variability contribute to crop production variance. We find that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) together account for 18, 7, and 6% of globally aggregated maize, soybean, and wheat production variability, respectively. The lower fractions of global-scale soybean and wheat production variability result from substantial but offsetting climate-forced production anomalies. All climate modes are important in at least one region studied. In 1983, ENSO, the only mode capable of forcing globally synchronous crop failures, was responsible for the largest synchronous crop failure in the modern historical record. Our results provide the basis for monitoring, and potentially predicting, simultaneous crop failures.