Accurate regional influenza epidemics tracking using Internet search data
Accurate regional influenza epidemics tracking using Internet search data
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-41559-6
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发表时间：
2019-03-27
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kou, S. C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ning, Shaoyang;Yang, Shihao;Kou, S. C.
在区域一级准确、高分辨率地跟踪流感疫情有助于公共卫生机构做出明智和积极的决策，特别是在面临疫情时。互联网用户的在线搜索为区域流感跟踪提供了巨大潜力。然而，由于区域一级互联网数据的数据结构复杂和质量下降，很少有既定方法能提供令人满意的性能。在这篇文章中，我们提出了一种名为ARGO2（2步增广回归与GOOGLE数据）的新方法，该方法有效地将不同分辨率（国家和地区）的公开可用Google搜索数据与疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）的传统流感监测数据相结合，以准确，实时地跟踪流感。与现有的基于互联网数据的区域流感跟踪方法相比，ARGO2在美国所有地区都具有非常有竞争力的性能，并且与我们在2009年3月至2018年3月期间进行数值测试的最佳替代方法相比，它已经实现了30%的误差减少。ARGO2是可靠和强大的，具有灵活性，以纳入其他来源和决议的额外信息，使其成为区域流感跟踪的强大工具，并有可能在区域或地方一级跟踪其他社会，经济或公共卫生事件。
Accurate, high-resolution tracking of influenza epidemics at the regional level helps public health agencies make informed and proactive decisions, especially in the face of outbreaks. Internet users' online searches offer great potential for the regional tracking of influenza. However, due to the complex data structure and reduced quality of Internet data at the regional level, few established methods provide satisfactory performance. In this article, we propose a novel method named ARGO2 (2-step Augmented Regression with GOogle data) that efficiently combines publicly available Google search data at different resolutions (national and regional) with traditional influenza surveillance data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for accurate, real-time regional tracking of influenza. ARGO2 gives very competitive performance across all US regions compared with available Internet-data-based regional influenza tracking methods, and it has achieved 30% error reduction over the best alternative method that we numerically tested for the period of March 2009 to March 2018. ARGO2 is reliable and robust, with the flexibility to incorporate additional information from other sources and resolutions, making it a powerful tool for regional influenza tracking, and potentially for tracking other social, economic, or public health events at the regional or local level.