Regime shifts and uncertainty in pollution control
Regime shifts and uncertainty in pollution control
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jedc.2012.01.006
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Zemel, Amos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Zeeuw, Aart;Zemel, Amos
我们开发了一个简单的模型来管理一个受到污染损害的系统，例如气候变化，在损害函数突然和随机跳跃的风险下。该模型能够充分动态地刻画不确定条件下的最优排放政策。与文献中报告的灾难性事件模型的模棱两可的结果相比，这些结果意味着预防行为。该框架用于分析适应与缓解的两难境地，并为确定何时应开展适应活动提供了一个简单的标准。(C)2012爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
We develop a simple model of managing a system subject to pollution damage, such as climate change, under the risk of an abrupt and random jump in the damage function. The model allows the full dynamic characterization of the optimal emission policies under uncertainty. The results imply precautionary behavior in contrast with the ambiguous outcomes reported in the literature for models of catastrophic occurrences. The framework is used to analyze the adaptation vs. mitigation dilemma and provides a simple criterion to determine when adaptation activities should be undertaken. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.