Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability
Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nature16986
复制
发表时间：
2016-03-10
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Willis, Kathy J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Seddon, Alistair W. R.;Macias-Fauria, Marc;Willis, Kathy J.
尽管气候变化，确定有助于生态系统的持久性和复原力的属性是具有全球意义的研究优先事项(1)。在这里，我们提出了一种新的经验方法来评估生态系统对气候变化的相对敏感性，这是弹性的一个特性，它建立在理论建模工作的基础上，认识到接近临界阈值的系统对外部扰动的反应更敏感2。我们开发了一种新的衡量标准--植被敏感性指数，它可以识别过去14年来对气候变化敏感的地区。该指标使用了来自中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)增强型植被指数的时间序列数据(3)，以及驱动植被生产力的三个气候变量(4)(气温、水可获得性和云量)。分析的基础是一种自回归建模方法，用于确定每月时间尺度上植被生产力的气候驱动因素，以及具有记忆效应和对外部强迫的响应率降低的地区(5)。我们发现，在北极冻原、北方林带的部分地区、热带雨林、世界各地的高山地区、中亚和北美的草原和草原地区、南美洲东部的卡廷加落叶林以及澳大利亚东部地区，对气候变化的反应被放大的生态敏感地区。我们的研究提供了一种量化方法，用于评估生态系统--无论是自然生态系统还是具有强烈人为特征的生态系统--对环境变异性的相对响应率，这是解决为什么某些地区似乎比其他地区更敏感的第一步，以及这对生态系统服务提供的弹性和人类福祉有什么影响。
The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance(1). Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations2. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index(3), and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity(4) (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing(5). We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems-be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature-to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.