Understanding uncertainty: forecasting seasonal climate for farmers in Zimbabwe
Understanding uncertainty: forecasting seasonal climate for farmers in Zimbabwe
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了解不确定性：为津巴布韦农民预测季节性气候
DOI：
10.1017/s1357530901000321
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Patt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Patt
气候学和农业研究表明，太平洋的厄尔尼诺循环是南部非洲，特别是津巴布韦玉米产量的良好预测指标。然而，天气预报员只能提供概率预测，而不能肯定地说津巴布韦将经历潮湿或干燥的条件。为了避免让农民感到困惑，推广服务人员将这一预测转化为确定性术语。这种方法与风险沟通方面的文献相冲突，后者表明，有必要对完整的预测内容进行参与性讨论，以保持一段时间的可信度。但这篇文献所基于的大部分研究都是在工业化国家进行的，目前尚不清楚这些经验教训是否也适用于津巴布韦农村等地。为了测试这一点，对津巴布韦各地村庄的农民进行了一项实验，在实验中，他们展示了他们在不确定情况下做出决定的能力。其结果与在工业化国家进行的类似实验在性质上相似。这表明可以改进津巴布韦目前的预报通信做法。
Climatological and agricultural research has shown that El Nino cycles in the Pacific Ocean are a good predictor of maize yields in southern Africa, particularly Zimbabwe. However, forecasters can only offer probabilistic predictions, rather than saying with certainty whether Zimbabwe will experience wet or dry conditions. In an effort to avoid confusing farmers, extension service officers translate the forecast into deterministic terms. This approach conflicts with the literature in risk communication, which suggests that participatory discussions of the full forecast content is necessary to maintain credibility over time. But most of the research on which this literature is based has taken place in industrialized countries, and it is unclear whether the lessons apply as well in places like rural Zimbabwe. To test for this, an experiment was conducted with farmers in villages throughout Zimbabwe, in which they revealed their ability to make decisions under situations of uncertainty. The results are qualitatively similar to those of similar experiments conducted in industrialized countries. This suggests that improvements could be made to current forecast communication practices in Zimbabwe.