Validating energy-oriented CGE models
Validating energy-oriented CGE models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2011.01.005
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发表时间：
2011-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Tyner, Wallace
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beckman, Jayson;Hertel, Thomas;Tyner, Wallace
尽管CGE模型得到了大量使用----特别是在分析与能源、气候和贸易有关的基础广泛的政策方面，但它们往往被批评为没有得到充分验证。关键参数往往没有计量经济学估计，模型作为一个整体的性能很少与历史结果进行检查。因此，经常出现的问题是，人们可以在多大程度上相信CGE的结果。在本文中，我们采用了一种新的方法来验证一个广泛使用的全球CGE模型- GTAP-E。通过比较模型生成的石油价格分布的方差（由模型的历史需求和供应冲击驱动）与观察到的五年移动平均价格分布，我们得出结论，GTAP-E的能源需求在中期运行时间框架内的价格弹性太大。在结合了最新的能源需求和供应弹性的计量经济学估计后，我们重新审视了验证问题，发现模型的表现更令人满意。作为进一步的检查，我们比较了一个确定性的全球一般均衡模拟，在五年的历史实现的基础上：2001-2006年，在此期间，石油价格急剧上升，沿着全球能源需求的增长。正如随机模拟所预期的那样，在这种全球一般均衡的背景下，修订后的模型参数比原来的GTAP-E参数表现得更好。由爱思唯尔公司出版
Although CGE models have received heavy usage - particularly in the analysis of broad-based policies relating to energy, climate and trade, they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated. Key parameters are often not econometrically estimated, and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes. As a consequence, questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in CGE results. In this paper, we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global CGE model - GTAP-E. By comparing the variance of model-generated petroleum price distributions - driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model - with observed five-year moving average price distributions, we conclude that energy demand in GTAP-E is far too price-elastic over this medium run time frame. After incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities, we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily. As a further check, we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation, based on historical realizations over the five year period: 2001-2006, during which petroleum prices rose sharply, along with growing global energy demands. As anticipated by the stochastic simulations, the revised model parameters perform much better than the original GTAP-E parameters in this global, general equilibrium context. Published by Elsevier B.V.