Multi-nutrient, multi-group model of present and future oceanic phytoplankton communities
Multi-nutrient, multi-group model of present and future oceanic phytoplankton communities
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-3-585-2006
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发表时间：
2006-11
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
E. Litchman;C. Klausmeier;J. Miller;O. Schofield;P. Falkowski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Litchman;C. Klausmeier;J. Miller;O. Schofield;P. Falkowski
抽象的。浮游植物群落组成深刻地影响营养循环的模式和海洋食物网的动态;因此，预测现在和未来的浮游植物群落结构是至关重要的，以了解海洋生态系统如何响应物理强迫和营养限制。我们开发了一个浮游植物群落的机械模型，包括多个分类组（硅藻，颗石藻和prasinophytes），营养物质（硝酸盐，铵，磷酸盐，硅酸盐和铁），光，和一个通才浮游动物食草动物。根据广泛的文献调查，对每个分类组进行了参数化。我们测试模型在两个对比的网站在现代海洋，北大西洋（北大西洋水华实验，NABE）和亚北极北太平洋（海洋站爸爸，OSP）。该模型成功地预测了一般模式的社区组成和演替在这两个网站：在北大西洋，该模型预测春季硅藻水华，其次是球石藻和prasinophyte开花后，在本赛季。在北太平洋，该模型再现了低叶绿素群落占主导地位的prasinophytes和颗石藻，低总生物量的变化和高养分浓度全年。敏感性分析显示，最敏感的参数和可接受的参数范围的身份不同的两个网站。然后，我们使用该模型来预测不同的全球变化情景下的社区重组：晚发病和分层的持续时间延长，由于温室气体浓度增加，混合层深度较浅;增加深水氮;减少深水磷和铁浓度的增加或减少。为了估计我们预测中的不确定性，我们使用了参数空间的Monte Carlo采样，其中使用产生可接受的现代结果的参数组合运行未来场景，并确定了预测的鲁棒性。分层的发生和持续时间的变化改变了北大西洋春季硅藻水华的时间和规模，并增加了北太平洋浮游植物和浮游动物的总生物量。在某些情况下，营养物浓度的变化改变了主要群体的优势格局，以及叶绿素总量和浮游动物生物量。基于这些情景，我们的模型表明，全球环境变化将不可避免地改变浮游植物群落结构，并可能影响全球生态地球化学循环。
Abstract. Phytoplankton community composition profoundly affects patterns of nutrient cycling and the dynamics of marine food webs; therefore predicting present and future phytoplankton community structure is crucial to understand how ocean ecosystems respond to physical forcing and nutrient limitations. We develop a mechanistic model of phytoplankton communities that includes multiple taxonomic groups (diatoms, coccolithophores and prasinophytes), nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate and iron), light, and a generalist zooplankton grazer. Each taxonomic group was parameterized based on an extensive literature survey. We test the model at two contrasting sites in the modern ocean, the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Bloom Experiment, NABE) and subarctic North Pacific (ocean station Papa, OSP). The model successfully predicts general patterns of community composition and succession at both sites: In the North Atlantic, the model predicts a spring diatom bloom, followed by coccolithophore and prasinophyte blooms later in the season. In the North Pacific, the model reproduces the low chlorophyll community dominated by prasinophytes and coccolithophores, with low total biomass variability and high nutrient concentrations throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the identity of the most sensitive parameters and the range of acceptable parameters differed between the two sites. We then use the model to predict community reorganization under different global change scenarios: a later onset and extended duration of stratification, with shallower mixed layer depths due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations; increase in deep water nitrogen; decrease in deep water phosphorus and increase or decrease in iron concentration. To estimate uncertainty in our predictions, we used a Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space where future scenarios were run using parameter combinations that produced acceptable modern day outcomes and the robustness of the predictions was determined. Change in the onset and duration of stratification altered the timing and the magnitude of the spring diatom bloom in the North Atlantic and increased total phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass in the North Pacific. Changes in nutrient concentrations in some cases changed dominance patterns of major groups, as well as total chlorophyll and zooplankton biomass. Based on these scenarios, our model suggests that global environmental change will inevitably alter phytoplankton community structure and potentially impact global biogeochemical cycles.