Projected changes in fire size from daily spread potential in Canada over the 21st century
Projected changes in fire size from daily spread potential in Canada over the 21st century
复制标题
根据加拿大 21 世纪每日蔓延潜力预测的火灾规模变化
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aba101
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
M. Flannigan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xianli Wang;K. Studens;M. Parisien;Steve W. Taylor;J. Candau;Yan Boulanger;M. Flannigan
广泛的共识表明，气候变化将导致更大和更频繁的火灾，导致加拿大大部分地区的年燃烧面积（AAB）不断增加。由于气候变化模型中的不确定性以及我们无法量化不断变化的环境与火灾活动之间复杂的相互作用，我们预测火灾规模（FS）和AAB未来变化的能力有限。在这项研究中，我们介绍了一种新的方法来预测未来的FS和AAB在加拿大整个世纪的基础上火灾有利的天气，以及它如何转化为地面火灾蔓延（即蔓延天）。我们发现，到世纪末，极端火灾年（AAB的第99百分位数）的可能性在加拿大可能会增加四倍，在北方生物群落中可能会增加10倍。具体而言，FS和AAB可能分别增加20%-64%和25%-93%，极端气候情景下的平均火灾年可能燃烧1.11亿公顷，比加拿大现代历史上最极端的火灾年（1.77亿公顷）高出1.44亿公顷。我们的研究结果表明，通过考虑野火的强烈非线性扩展作为火灾蔓延天数的函数，即使是保守的气候变化情景也可能导致火灾活动显着增加。
The broad consensus indicates that climate change will cause larger and more frequent fires, resulting in a growing annual area burned (AAB) in much of Canada. Our ability to predict future changes in fire size (FS) and AAB is limited due to the uncertainty embedded in climate change models and our inability to quantify the complex interactions between the changing environment and fire activity. In this study, we introduce a new method to predict future FS and AAB across Canada over the 21st century based on fire-conducive weather and how it translates to on-the-ground fire spread (i.e. spread days). We found that the potential for an extreme fire year (99th percentile of AAB) could quadruple by the end of the century across Canada, and ≥ 10 times more common in the boreal biome. Specifically, FS and AAB may increase 20%–64% and 25%–93%, respectively, and the average fire year under the extreme climate scenario may burn ∼11 Mha, which is ∼4 Mha higher than the most extreme fire year in Canada’s modern history (∼7 Mha). Our results demonstrate that by accounting for the strong nonlinear expansion of wildfires as a function of number of fire spread days, even conservative climate-change scenarios may yield significant increase in fire activity.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1802316115
发表时间：
2018-09-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Holden, Zachary A.;Swanson, Alan;Affleck, David
通讯作者：
Affleck, David
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1412797111
发表时间：
2014-08-26
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Coumou, Dim;Petoukhov, Vladimir;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
通讯作者：
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim