Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests
Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.035
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发表时间：
2014-12-01
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Calkin, David E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ager, Alan A.;Day, Michelle A.;Calkin, David E.
对美国西部国家森林的燃料管理活动进行大量投资是国家战略的一部分，旨在减少灾难性野火造成的人类和生态损失，并创造具有防火能力的景观。在国家森林内部和国家森林之间确定这些投资的优先次序仍然是一个挑战，部分原因是没有一个全面评估来确定目前的野火风险和暴露程度，因此难以确定国家优先事项和燃料管理的具体目标地区。为了更广泛地了解国家森林系统中的野火暴露，我们分析了美国西部82个国家森林的野火活动和燃料处理投资的模拟和经验数据。我们首先总结了最近的火灾数据，以研究森林之间的点火频率和燃烧面积的变化与燃料减少处理的投资。然后，我们使用模拟建模来分析烧伤概率和强度的精细尺度空间变化。我们还估计了每个森林发生特大火灾事件的概率，以及国家森林火灾向周围城市界面的传播。分析表明，最近的烧毁面积与模拟模型的预测之间有很好的对应关系。模型还说明了森林之间和森林内部燃烧概率和强度的变化幅度。在大多数情况下，模拟燃烧概率低于历史，反映了许多国家森林的火灾排除。从国家森林到城市界面的模拟野火传输在森林之间变化很大。我们讨论了如何利用研究结果在一个全面的多尺度风险管理框架内优先考虑减少危险燃料的投资。爱思唯尔有限公司出版
Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework. Published by Elsevier Ltd.