Statistical law for tropical cyclone motion in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
Statistical law for tropical cyclone motion in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.4452
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发表时间：
2016-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xiping Yu;X. Niu;Haojie Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiping Yu;X. Niu;Haojie Zhou
本文研究了西北太平洋热带气旋漂移速度的统计规律。研究基于中国气象局发布的1949-2012年2146个气旋事件的历史路径数据。得到了气旋平均漂移速度的大小、方向、纬向分量和纬向分量与纬度的经验关系式。在排除纬度影响后，发现气旋漂移速度服从简单的统计规律，即漂移速度的大小和方向分别近似满足伽玛分布和对称双峰分布，而偏移漂移速度的纬向分量和纬向分量满足由双曲正割函数表示的相同类型的对称概率分布，不同的偏差。所得结果对改进现有的热带气旋路径预报技术具有潜在的应用价值。在热带气旋可能造成严重破坏的沿海地区，这些系统也可用于风险管理。
The statistical law that governs the drift velocity of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is investigated. The investigation is based on data published by China Meteorological Administration for historical tracks of 2146 cyclone events that occurred during 1949–2012. Empirical formulae are obtained to relate the magnitude, the direction, the meridional and zonal components of the averaged cyclone drift velocity with latitude. As the latitude effect is excluded, it is found that the cyclone drift velocity is governed by simple statistical laws, i.e. the magnitude and direction of the deviated drift velocity approximately satisfy a gamma distribution and a symmetric bimodal distribution, respectively, while the meridional and zonal components of the deviated drift velocity satisfy the same type of symmetric probability distribution represented by the hyperbolic secant function but with different deviations. The results obtained are potentially applicable to the enhancement of current tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques. They are also useful in risk management over the coastal areas where tropical cyclones may cause serious damages.