Evaluation of parametric wind models for more accurate modeling of storm surge: a case study of Hurricane Michael
Evaluation of parametric wind models for more accurate modeling of storm surge: a case study of Hurricane Michael
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-021-04525-y
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发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Linoj Vijayan;Wenrui Huang;Kai Yin;E. Ozguven;Simone Burns;M. Ghorbanzadeh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Linoj Vijayan;Wenrui Huang;Kai Yin;E. Ozguven;Simone Burns;M. Ghorbanzadeh
飓风引发的风暴潮是美国墨西哥湾沿岸的主要威胁。进行了一项数值建模研究，以模拟 2018 年登陆佛罗里达狭长地带的 5 级飓风迈克尔飓风期间的风暴潮。ADCIRC 水动力模型中使用高分辨率模型网格来模拟飓风期间的风暴潮和潮汐。通过比较模拟和观测到的沿海最大水位，评估了两个参数风模型（Holland 1980 模型和 Holland 2010 模型）对风暴潮模型准确性的影响。风模型参数由观测到的飓风风和压力数据确定。结果表明，Holland 1980 和 Holland 2010 风模型在预测墨西哥海滩最大水位方面都具有合理的准确性，误差在 1% 到 3.7% 之间。与墨西哥海滩观测到的峰值水位 4.74 m 相比，Holland 1980 风速半径为 64 节的风模型进行参数估计的误差最低为 1%。对于给定的风模型，风廓线还受到用于参数估计的风数据的影响。在远离飓风眼墙的地方，使用64节风速半径进行参数估计通常比使用34节风速半径进行参数估计产生的风力更弱。将模型模拟的风暴潮与沿海观测到的17个水痕进行比较，Holland 2010风模型使用34节风速半径进行参数估计，平均绝对误差最小。研究结果将为研究人员改进风暴潮建模提供良好的参考。经过验证的模型可用于支持沿海减灾规划。
Storm surge induced by hurricane is a major threat to the Gulf Coasts of the United States. A numerical modeling study was conducted to simulate the storm surge during Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane that landed on the Florida Panhandle in 2018. A high-resolution model mesh was used in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to simulate storm surge and tides during the hurricane. Two parametric wind models, Holland 1980 model and Holland 2010 model, have been evaluated for their effects on the accuracy of storm surge modeling by comparing simulated and observed maximum water levels along the coast. The wind model parameters are determined by observed hurricane wind and pressure data. Results indicate that both Holland 1980 and Holland 2010 wind models produce reasonable accuracy in predicting maximum water level in Mexico Beach, with errors between 1 and 3.7%. Comparing to the observed peak water level of 4.74 m in Mexico Beach, Holland 1980 wind model with radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation results in the lowest error of 1%. For a given wind model, the wind profiles are also affected by the wind data used for parameter estimation. Away from hurricane eye wall, using radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation generally produces weaker wind than those using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation. Comparing model simulated storm tides with 17 water marks observed along the coast, Holland 2010 wind model using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation leads to the minimum mean absolute error. The results will provide a good reference for researchers to improve storm surge modeling. The validated model can be used to support coastal hazard mitigation planning.