Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results
Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results
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寻求中值模型的合理基础：多模型集成结果的最优组合
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
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通讯作者：
S. Galmarini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Riccio;G. Giunta;S. Galmarini
本文提出了一种多模式集合结果的统计分析方法。这里考虑的模型是可操作的远距离传输和扩散模型，也用于实时模拟污染物扩散或放射性核素的意外释放。我们首先介绍的理论基础（其根源下沉到贝叶斯定理），然后将这种方法应用到ETEX-1演习期间获得的模型结果的分析。我们恢复了一些有趣的结果，支持最初在Galmarini等人（2004 a，B）中引入的称为“中值模型”的启发式方法。这种方法还提供了一种系统地减少（和量化）模型不确定性的方法，从而以非常有效的方式支持决策过程和/或监管目的活动。
In this paper we present an approach for the sta- tistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The mod- els considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sink- ing into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally intro- duced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). This approach also provides a way to systematically re- duce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.