Towards theory integration: Threshold model as a link between signal detection theory, fast-and-frugal trees and evidence accumulation theory
Towards theory integration: Threshold model as a link between signal detection theory, fast-and-frugal trees and evidence accumulation theory
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DOI：
10.1111/jep.12490
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Gigerenzer, Gerd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hozo, Iztok;Djulbegovic, Benjamin;Gigerenzer, Gerd
决策制定的理论分为旨在帮助决策者在真实的，大'世界和那些谁研究决策在理想化的小'世界设置。在大多数情况下，这些大世界和小世界的决策理论仍然是断开的。方法我们连接的信号检测理论（SDT）和证据积累理论（EAT）的小世界决策理论的概念，阈值模型和大世界的启发式决策，依赖于快速和节俭的决策树（FFT）。结果我们连接这些大世界和小世界的理论，通过证明看似不同的决策，概念其实是等价的。在这样做的过程中，我们能够（1）将阈值模型与EAT和FFT联系起来，从而创建考虑FFT的分类准确性和阈值模型中构建的结果的决策标准;（2）演示如何将阈值标准用作构建FFT时最佳选择线索的策略;以及（3）表明阈值模型中表达的补偿策略可以与用于决策的非补偿FFT方法相联系。我们还展示了FFT的构建和性能如何依赖于可靠的信息-结果对健康干预的益处和危害的估计高度敏感。我们说明了我们的分析的实际用途，通过描述我们开发的FFT处方他汀类药物的一级预防cardiovascular diseases.ConclusionsBy链接SDT和EAT的补偿阈值模型和非补偿启发式决策（FFT），我们展示了如何这两个决策策略最终联系在一个更广泛的理论框架内，从而响应呼吁整合决策理论范式。
Rationale, aims and objectivesTheories of decision making are divided between those aiming to help decision makers in the real, large' world and those who study decisions in idealized small' world settings. For the most part, these large- and small-world decision theories remain disconnected.MethodsWe linked the small-world decision theoretic concepts of signal detection theory (SDT) and evidence accumulation theory (EAT) to the threshold model and the large world of heuristic decision making that rely on fast-and-frugal decision trees (FFT).ResultsWe connected these large- and small-world theories by demonstrating that seemingly different decision-making concepts are actually equivalent. In doing so, we were able (1) to link the threshold model to EAT and FFT, thereby creating decision criteria that take into account both the classification accuracy of FFT and the consequences built in the threshold model; (2) to demonstrate how threshold criteria can be used as a strategy for optimal selection of cues when constructing FFT; and (3) to show that the compensatory strategy expressed in the threshold model can be linked to a non-compensatory FFT approach to decision making. We also showed how construction and performance of FFT depend on having reliable information - the results were highly sensitive to the estimates of benefits and harms of health interventions. We illustrate the practical usefulness of our analysis by describing an FFT we developed for prescribing statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.ConclusionsBy linking SDT and EAT to the compensatory threshold model and to non-compensatory heuristic decision making (FFT), we showed how these two decision strategies are ultimately linked within a broader theoretical framework and thereby respond to calls for integrating decision theory paradigms.