On the feasibility of using a lake water balance model to infer rainfall: an example from Lake Victoria
On the feasibility of using a lake water balance model to infer rainfall: an example from Lake Victoria
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论利用湖泊水平衡模型推断降雨量的可行性：以维多利亚湖为例
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Ba
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Nicholson;Xungang Yin;M. Ba
摘要推导了一个可用于从湖平面估算降雨量的维多利亚湖水量平衡模型。该模型利用了卫星对湖上降雨量的估计。该模型，最初推导和校准的1956-1978年期间，在这里重新制定的方式，所有的水平衡条款，除蒸发量可以计算从集水区降雨量和水位的湖泊相结合。重新制定的模型进行了验证，并用于预测1931-1994年期间的湖泊水位波动。还进行了误差分析。然后，该模型被“倒置”，以解决平均降雨条件在不同的时间间隔变化的湖泊水位。对于已知降雨条件的现代时期，模型估计的误差约为1%。
Abstract A water balance model of Lake Victoria that can be used to assess rainfall from lake level, is derived. The model utilizes satellite estimates of rainfall directly over the lake. The model, initially derived and calibrated for the period 1956–1978, is reformulated here in such a way that all water balance terms except evaporation can be calculated from a combination of catchment rainfall and level of the lake. The reformulated model is validated and used to predict lake level fluctuations during the period 1931–1994. An error analysis is also performed. The model is then “inverted” to solve for mean rainfall conditions during various intervals of changing lake levels. For modern periods with known rainfall conditions, the error in model estimates is of the order of 1%.