Confidence reflects a noisy decision reliability estimate
Confidence reflects a noisy decision reliability estimate
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41562-022-01464-x
复制
发表时间：
2022-11-07
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Goris, Robbe L. T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boundy-Singer, Zoe M.;Ziemba, Corey M.;Goris, Robbe L. T.
Boundy-Singer和团队研究了人们的信心如何预测他们决策的准确性。他们发现，信心评估反映的是决策的可靠性，而不是准确性，而刺激不确定性的不确定性限制了信心判断的质量。人类知道这一点，通常对简单的决定比困难的决定更有信心。然而，信心报告并不能完美地跟踪决策的准确性，但也反映了反应偏差和难度误判。为了隔离信心报告的质量，我们开发了一个模型的决策过程中的选择信心数据。在这个模型中，信心反映了受试者对自己决策可靠性的估计。这种估计的质量受到受试者对告知其决策的变量的不确定性的不确定性（“元不确定性”）的限制。该模型提供了一个准确的选择信心数据在广泛的感知和认知任务，在六个以前的研究调查。我们发现元不确定性在不同的科目，是稳定的，随着时间的推移，在某些领域的推广，可以通过实验来操纵。该模型提供了一个简约的解释计算过程的基础和约束的信心。
Boundy-Singer and the team studied how people's confidence can predict the accuracy of their decisions. They found that confidence estimates reflect decision reliability, not accuracy, and that the uncertainty about stimulus uncertainty limits the quality of confidence judgments.Decisions vary in difficulty. Humans know this and typically report more confidence in easy than in difficult decisions. However, confidence reports do not perfectly track decision accuracy, but also reflect response biases and difficulty misjudgements. To isolate the quality of confidence reports, we developed a model of the decision-making process underlying choice-confidence data. In this model, confidence reflects a subject's estimate of the reliability of their decision. The quality of this estimate is limited by the subject's uncertainty about the uncertainty of the variable that informs their decision ('meta-uncertainty'). This model provides an accurate account of choice-confidence data across a broad range of perceptual and cognitive tasks, investigated in six previous studies. We find meta-uncertainty varies across subjects, is stable over time, generalizes across some domains and can be manipulated experimentally. The model offers a parsimonious explanation for the computational processes that underlie and constrain the sense of confidence.