Rainfall conditions, typhoon frequency, and contemporary landslide erosion in Japan
Rainfall conditions, typhoon frequency, and contemporary landslide erosion in Japan
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DOI：
10.1130/g35680.1
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发表时间：
2014-11
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
H. Saito;O. Korup;T. Uchida;Shinsaku Hayashi;T. Oguchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Saito;O. Korup;T. Uchida;Shinsaku Hayashi;T. Oguchi
应对气候变化导致的极端天气条件的预测增加需要对灾害引发的山体滑坡进行控制的强大知识。我们探讨降雨量和滑坡规模之间的关系，在整个日本列岛。我们测试是否可以直接从降雨总量，强度和持续时间预测的滑坡总量使用的4744个由地震引发的滑坡记录从公元2001年至2011年的全国性库存。我们发现，更大的滑坡更丰富的牺牲较小的总，最大，平均降雨强度超过250毫米，35毫米/小时，和244毫米/小时，分别。这些降雨参数的频率分布峰值和严重偏斜。然而，无论是最频繁的，也是最极端的值，这些降雨指标一致的最大滑坡量。一个显着减少滑坡量的平均和最大降雨强度，以及持续时间，点在山坡地貌响应枯竭，无论样本大小，滑坡类型，动员量，主要岩性，或报告的偏见。我们的研究结果强调了降雨指标的峰值和最大相关滑坡量之间的大量偏移，从而使从暴雨量级或频率指标对地貌工作的直接估计复杂化。只有总降雨量似乎是一个合适的单调预测台风和锋面风暴期间动员滑坡量。
Dealing with predicted increases in extreme weather conditions due to climate change requires robust knowledge about controls on rainfall-triggered landslides. We explore relationships between rainfall and landslide size throughout the Japanese archipelago. We test whether the total volume of landslides can be predicted directly from rainfall totals, intensity, and duration using a nationwide inventory of 4744 rainfall-triggered landslides recorded from A.D. 2001 to 2011. We find that larger landslides were more abundant at the expense of smaller ones when total, maximum, and mean rainfall intensity exceeded ∼250 mm, ∼35 mm/h, and ∼4 mm/h, respectively. Frequency distributions of these rainfall parameters are peaked and heavily skewed. Yet neither the most frequent nor the most extreme values of these rainfall metrics coincide consistently with the maximum landslide volumes. A striking decrease of landslide volumes at both mean and maximum rainfall intensity, as well as duration, points to an exhaustion in hillslope geomorphic response regardless of sample size, landslide type, mobilized volume, dominant lithology, or reporting bias. Our results underscore substantial offsets between the peaks of rainfall metrics and maximum associated landslide volumes, thus complicating straightforward estimates of geomorphic work from metrics of rainstorm magnitude or frequency. Only the rainfall total appears to be a suitable monotonic predictor of landslide volumes mobilized during typhoons and frontal storms.