The association of melioidosis with climatic factors in Darwin, Australia: A 23-year time-series analysis
The association of melioidosis with climatic factors in Darwin, Australia: A 23-year time-series analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jinf.2016.02.015
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发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
28.2
通讯作者：
Currie, Bart J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaestli, Mirjam;Grist, Eric P. M.;Currie, Bart J.
目的：类鼻疽病是一种常见于人和动物的致命性疾病，流行于东南亚和澳大利亚北部。它是由环境细菌假腮腺伯克霍尔德氏菌引起的。我们分析了达尔文市新发类鼻疽病病例之前的天气和气候因素，并比较了天气事件与严重和平均雨季降雨入院之间的时间。方法：在1990-2013年的时间序列分析中，我们应用增强回归树和负二项模型来研究类鼻疽病病例与天气事件之间的关系。结果：我们发现露点、云量、降雨量、最高温度和地下水的升高与患类鼻疽病的风险增加有关。在强降雨事件之后，“假定”潜伏期明显缩短。雨季早期的降雨与更多的病例有关，反映当地天气动态和降水的当地海面温度的上升也与更多的病例有关。结论：我们的研究结果表明，记录的类鼻疽病例频率与降雨相关事件的性质和时间之间存在统计关联，并提示未来海面和环境温度的上升可能会导致类鼻疽病的增加。(C)2016年英国感染协会。爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Objectives: Melioidosis is an often fatal disease in humans and animals and endemic in Southeast Asia and northern Australia. It is caused by the environmental bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei. We analysed weather and climate factors preceding new melioidosis cases in Darwin and compared the time between weather event and admission to hospital for severe and average wet season rainfall.Methods: In a time-series analysis from 1990 to 2013 we applied a boosted regression tree and a negative binomial model to investigate the association between melioidosis cases and weather events. Fitted Fourier terms controlled for long-term seasonal trends.Results: We found a rise in the dew point, cloud cover, rainfall, maximum temperature and groundwater to be associated with an increased risk to acquire melioidosis. A shorter 'putative' incubation period was evident after severe rainfall events. Rainfall occurring early in the wet season was linked to more cases as was an increase in the local sea surface temperature reflecting local weather dynamics and precipitation.Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate a statistical association between frequency of recorded melioidosis cases and the nature and timing of rainfall related events and suggest a future rise in the sea surface and ambient temperature may lead to increased melioidosis. (C) 2016 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.