Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil
Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1007/s13524-020-00871-x
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发表时间：
2020-05-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Weitzman, Abigail
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marteleto, Leticia J.;Guedes, Gilvan;Weitzman, Abigail
2015年底，巴西卫生部和泛美卫生组织将与寨卡病毒（ZIKV）相关的先天性畸形的增加列为公共卫生紧急事件。ZIKV相关先天性综合征的风险对生殖结果构成威胁，可能导致活产数量和潜在生育率下降。利用巴西活产信息系统（SINASC）的每月活产微观数据，这项研究考察了巴西ZIKV流行期间的活产和生育趋势。研究结果表明，在ZIKV和小头畸形症之间的联系公开宣布后大约9个月，活产率下降，这是在教育和地理范围内分层的。尽管总生育率下降幅度很小，但按年龄和母亲教育程度估计的生育趋势表明，寨卡病毒对巴西生育结构的影响存在重大差异。进一步的研究结果证实，即使控制了该市的特征，2016年年中的活产率也显着下降;这些结果突出了下降的时间和幅度的重要细微差别。结合起来，我们的研究结果说明了了解胎儿健康威胁的风险如何导致活产和生育率下降的价值。
In late 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization classified the increase in congenital malformations associated with the Zika virus (ZIKV) as a public health emergency. The risk of ZIKV-related congenital syndrome poses a threat to reproductive outcomes that could result in declining numbers of live births and potentially fertility. Using monthly microdata on live births from the Brazilian Information System on Live Births (SINASC), this study examines live births and fertility trends amid the ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. Findings suggest a decline in live births that is stratified across educational and geographic lines, beginning approximately nine months after the link between ZIKV and microcephaly was publicly announced. Although declines in total fertility rates were small, fertility trends estimated by age and maternal education suggest important differences in how Zika might have impacted Brazil's fertility structure. Further findings confirm the significant declines in live births in mid-2016 even when characteristics of the municipality are controlled for; these results highlight important nuances in the timing and magnitude of the decline. Combined, our findings illustrate the value of understanding how the risk of a health threat directed at fetuses has led to declines in live births and fertility.