Reconstructing historical marine ecosystems using food web models: Northern British Columbia from Pre-European contact to present
Reconstructing historical marine ecosystems using food web models: Northern British Columbia from Pre-European contact to present
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.05.005
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发表时间：
2008-09-10
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Vasconcellos, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ainsworth, C. H.;Pitcher, T. J.;Vasconcellos, M.
质量平衡营养模型（Ecopath与Ecosim）开发的北方不列颠哥伦比亚省（BC）的海洋生态系统的历史时期1750年，1900年，1950年和2000年AD。利用渔业统计数据和文献价值汇编渔获量、渔捞死亡率和生物量的时间序列数据。使用组装的数据集，通过操纵营养流参数并添加气候因素（初级生产异常和鲱鱼补充异常），对基于1950年的模拟动态进行拟合，使其与50年至2000年的观测结果一致。预测的气候异常反映了记录的环境系列，最强烈的海表温度和太平洋年代际振荡指数。最佳拟合的捕食者-猎物相互作用参数表明混合营养控制的生态系统。从拟合的1950年模型的营养流参数转移到其他的历史时期，假设在密度依赖的觅食策略平稳。1900年的模型使用这种方法显示出更好的数据拟合，这表明营养控制的模式可能在上个世纪的大部分时间里保持不变。1950年的模型使用气候和历史捕鱼驱动因素向前推进了50年。将由此产生的生态系统与2000年的模型进行比较，并在对2050年的预测中比较这些模型的动态。这些模型表明，类似的恢复轨迹后，假设释放捕鱼。(C)2008 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Mass-balance trophic models (Ecopath with Ecosim) are developed for the marine ecosystem of northern British Columbia (BC) for the historical periods 1750, 1900, 1950 and 2000 AD. Time series data are compiled for catch, fishing mortality and biomass using fisheries statistics and literature values. Using the assembled dataset, dynamics of the 1950-based simulations are fitted to agree with observations over 50 years to 2000 through the manipulation of trophic flow parameters and the addition of climate factors: a primary production anomaly and herring recruitment anomaly. The predicted climate anomalies reflect documented environmental series, most strongly sea surface temperature and the Pacific Decadal oscillation index. The best-fit predator-prey interaction parameters indicate mixed trophic control of the ecosystem. Trophic flow parameters from the fitted 1950 model are transferred to the other historical periods assuming stationarity in density-dependent foraging tactics. The 1900 model exhibited an improved fit to data using this approach, which suggests that the pattern of trophic control may have remained constant over much of the last century. The 1950 model is driven for-ward 50 years using climate and historical fishing drivers. The resulting ecosystem is compared to the 2000 model, and the dynamics of these models are compared in a predictive forecast to 2050. The models suggest similar restoration trajectories after a hypothetical release from fishing. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.