Reconstructing high-resolution temperature for the past 40 years in the Tianshan Mountains, China based on the Earth system data products
Reconstructing high-resolution temperature for the past 40 years in the Tianshan Mountains, China based on the Earth system data products
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基于地球系统数据产品重建中国天山近40年高分辨率气温
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105493
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Li Weihong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan Mengtian;Xu Jianhua;Chen Yaning;Li Weihong
气候变化对径流和水资源的影响受到广泛关注。西北中国山区气象台站和观测资料十分有限，对准确的水文预报和水资源评价提出了挑战。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一种方法来重建山区的高分辨率温度。基于ERA中期温度和高分辨率DEM，采用双线性插值法对非线性回归模型进行了拟合和校正。利用开发的方法，重建了1979年1月至2019年8月的月温度，空间分辨率为90米×90米，然后与30个气象站的观测结果进行了验证。验证结果表明，重建数据具有较高的精度。基于重建，我们发现在过去的40多年里，天山山脉的年平均气温每十年上升0.3摄氏度。年平均气温最高的是东天山(87°47‘E-96°E)8.32℃，其次是西天山(73°E-80°E)5.21℃，中天山(80°E-87°47’E)3.62℃。海拔高度是影响研究区温度空间分布的主要因素。我们还利用重建的温度数据模拟了发源于天山的阿克苏河和开都河的径流。将模拟径流的精度与利用观测温度和原始ERA中期温度资料模拟的径流的精度进行了比较，结果表明，利用我们的重建方法模拟的径流具有最高的精度。
The impacts of climate change on runoff and water resources have been widely concerned. Meteorological stations and observation data are very limited in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, thus challenging accurate hydrological forecasting and water resource evaluation. To address this issue, we developed a method to reconstruct high-resolution temperatures in mountainous areas. Based on the ERA-Interim temperature and high-resolution DEM, nonlinear regression models were fitted and corrected via bilinear interpolation. Using the developed method, monthly temperatures from January 1979 to August 2019 with a spatial resolution of 90 m × 90 m were reconstructed and then verified against observations from 30 meteorological stations. The verification results indicate the high accuracy of the reconstructed data. Based on the reconstructions, we found that over the past 40 years, annual mean temperatures in the Tianshan Mountains had increased by 0.3 °C per decade. The highest annual mean temperature of 8.32 °C was found in East Tianshan (87°47′E-96°E), followed by 5.21 °C in West Tianshan (73°E-80°E), and 3.62 °C in Middle Tianshan (80°E-87°47′E). Altitude is the main factor affecting the spatial distribution of temperature in the study region. We also simulated runoff in the Aksu River and the Kaidu River, both of which originate from the Tianshan Mountains, using reconstructed temperature data. Comparing the accuracy of the simulated runoff with that of simulated using the observed temperature and the raw ERA-Interim temperature data revealed that the simulated runoff using our reconstructions showed the highest accuracy.