A review of current and possible future human–water dynamics in Myanmar's river basins
A review of current and possible future human–water dynamics in Myanmar's river basins
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-20-4913-2016
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发表时间：
2016-12
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
L. Taft;M. Evers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Taft;M. Evers
抽象的。河流提供了大量的生态系统服务，河岸人直接和间接地依赖于河水的可获得性以及河水的质量和数量。该国的经济和人民的福祉和收入，特别是在以农业为主的国家，在很大程度上取决于是否有足够的水可用。东南亚的缅甸尤其如此，该国65%以上的人口生活在农村地区，在农业部门工作。关于缅甸河流流域的研究很少，为人类-水研究提供基础的详细知识也非常有限。由于缅甸的社会、经济、生态系统和水资源由于政治和经济改革以及邻国的大规模和快速投资而面临重大挑战，因此需要更深入地了解该国的人-水系统动态。然而，不仅仅是政策和经济改变了对水的需求。气候变化和变化是人-水系统内的其他重要驱动因素。缅甸的气候受到印度季风环流的影响，这种环流受年际变化和区域变化的影响。特别是中部干旱地区和艾洛瓦迪三角洲容易发生严重干旱和极端洪水等极端事件。一方面，农民依靠经常性的河流洪水和高地下水位带来的天然肥料进行灌溉；另一方面，他们遭受这些与水有关的极端事件。预计由于全球气候变化，这些气候极端事件在未来可能会在频率和强度上增加。在丰富的水资源中，不同的国家和国际利益可能同时为缅甸提供机遇和风险。河流主干道沿线的几个大坝项目目前正在规划阶段。大坝很可能会在未知的程度上改变河流的流量、泥沙负荷，以及河流流域仍然丰富的生物多样性。这些自然和人为的开发可能还会影响一种特殊的农业类型；我们称之为河流泛滥平原上的冲积性农业，以及缅甸艾伊洛瓦季河流域的沙洲上的冲积性农业，分别被称为开河和昆。缅甸河流流域未来发展的相关方面结合了与环境水有关的因素、气候、经济和社会发展、水管理和土地利用变化。对这些相互作用的研究需要捕捉这些驱动因素的空间和时间动态。然而，只有以跨学科和跨学科的方法分析多尺度时空信息，才有可能充分理解所有这些复杂的相互关系。本文件系统地概述了现有的科学知识，并揭示了这些信息与人-环境，特别是与缅甸河流流域的人-水相互作用的相关性。通过应用eDPSIR框架，它确定了缅甸人-水系统的关键指标，并举例说明了与中部干旱地区的冲积耕作有关的使用情况。
Abstract. Rivers provide a large number of ecosystem services and riparian people depend directly and indirectly on water availability and quality and quantity of the river waters. The country's economy and the people's well-being and income, particularly in agriculturally dominated countries, are strongly determined by the availability of sufficient water. This is particularly true for the country of Myanmar in South-east Asia, where more than 65 % of the population live in rural areas, working in the agricultural sector. Only a few studies exist on river basins in Myanmar at all and detailed knowledge providing the basis for human–water research is very limited. A deeper understanding of human–water system dynamics in the country is required because Myanmar's society, economy, ecosystems and water resources are facing major challenges due to political and economic reforms and massive and rapid investments from neighbouring countries. However, not only policy and economy modify the need for water. Climate variability and change are other essential drivers within human–water systems. Myanmar's climate is influenced by the Indian Monsoon circulation which is subject to interannual and also regional variability. Particularly the central dry zone and the Ayeyarwady delta are prone to extreme events such as serious drought periods and extreme floods. On the one hand, the farmers depend on the natural fertiliser brought by regular river inundations and high groundwater levels for irrigation; on the other hand, they suffer from these water-related extreme events. It is expected that theses climatic extreme events will likely increase in frequency and magnitude in the future as a result of global climate change. Different national and international interests in the abundant water resources may provide opportunities and risks at the same time for Myanmar. Several dam projects along the main courses of the rivers are currently in the planning phase. Dams will most likely modify the river flows, the sediment loads and also the still rich biodiversity in the river basins, to an unknown extent. Probably, these natural and anthropogenically induced developments will also impact a special type of farming; we call it alluvial farming in the river floodplains and on sandbars in the Ayeyarwady River basin in Myanmar, which is called Kaing and Kyun, respectively. Relevant aspects for future development of Myanmar's river basins combine environment-water-related factors, climate, economic and social development, water management and land use changes. Research on these interplays needs to capture the spatial and temporal dynamics of these drivers. However, it is only possible to gain a full understanding of all these complex interrelationships if multi-scale spatiotemporal information is analysed in an inter- and trans-disciplinary approach. This paper gives a structured overview of the current scientific knowledge available and reveals the relevance of this information with regard to human–environment and particularly to human–water interactions in Myanmar's river basins. By applying the eDPSIR framework, it identifies key indicators in the Myanmar human–water system, which has been shown to be exemplary by giving an example of use related to alluvial farming in the central dry zone.