Uncertainty of storm surge forecast using integrated atmospheric and storm surge model: a case study on Typhoon Haishen 2020
Uncertainty of storm surge forecast using integrated atmospheric and storm surge model: a case study on Typhoon Haishen 2020
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DOI：
10.1080/21664250.2021.1997506
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发表时间：
2021-11
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
M. Toyoda;Nobuki Fukui;T. Miyashita;T. Shimura;N. Mori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Toyoda;Nobuki Fukui;T. Miyashita;T. Shimura;N. Mori
摘要利用一个大气-风暴潮耦合模式（WRF）和一个风暴潮模式与一个参数台风模式进行了2020年台风“海神”的后报试验和拟预报试验。通过对耦合模式的一系列模拟，分析了台风路径和强度对风暴潮预报误差的影响。结果表明，台风路径预报对风暴潮最大增水高度预报的误差源大于台风强度预报的误差源。此外，参数荷兰台风模式在实际应用中有高估的趋势相比，耦合模式，参数荷兰台风模式使用WRF输出能够准确地预测台风附近（九州西部地区）的风暴潮高度和它的峰值发生时间。但是，随着台风距离目标位置的增加，预报精度有下降的趋势。考虑台风路径预报的不确定性，利用预报误差信息进行风暴潮预报的拟集合模拟。20次集合预报结果表明，扰动台风路径模拟可以增加风暴潮峰值出现的概率。
ABSTRACT Hindcast experiments and pseudo-forecast experiments considering Typhoon Haishen (2020) were conducted using an atmospheric (WRF)-storm surge (GeoClaw) coupled model and a storm surge model with a parametric typhoon model. A series of simulations of the coupled model were used to quantify the error sources of the typhoon track and intensity in the forecast errors of storm surges. The results revealed that the typhoon track forecast had a larger error source for the storm surge forecast for the maximum surge height than the typhoon intensity. Furthermore, the parametric Holland typhoon model used in practice has an overestimation trend compared to the coupled model, and the parametric Holland typhoon model using WRF output was able to forecast the storm surge height near the typhoon (western Kyushu area) and its peak occurrence time accurately. However, the forecast accuracy tended to decrease as the distance from the typhoon to the target location increased. The pseudo-ensemble simulation of the storm surge forecast using forecast error information was conducted considering the uncertainty of the typhoon track forecast. The 20 ensemble forecast simulations revealed that the perturbed typhoon track simulation can increase the possibility of capturing the peak time of the storm surge.