Frequency of spring dust weather in North China linked to sea ice variability in the Barents Sea
Frequency of spring dust weather in North China linked to sea ice variability in the Barents Sea
复制标题
华北地区春季沙尘天气发生频率与巴伦支海海冰变化有关
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-016-3515-7
复制
发表时间：
2018-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Liu, Jiping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan, Ke;Xie, Zhiming;Liu, Jiping
研究了冬季巴伦支海海冰覆盖与春季华北沙尘天气频率之间的关系。研究发现，1996-2014年期间SICBS和DWFNC的逐年变化具有很强的相关性，相关系数为-0.65，而1980-2014年和1980-1995年期间SICBS和DWFNC之间的相关性在统计上不显著。在1996-2014年期间，低冬季SICBS与西伯利亚西部（SCWS）在冬季和春季，这也是由冬季SICBS和春季SCWS自20世纪90年代中期以来加强之间的关系支持的积雪减少。这导致了大气环流和气候条件的变化，有利于华北地区沙尘天气事件的频率增加。进一步分析表明，自20世纪90年代中期以来，SICBS标准差的年际变化加剧，作用中心东移到巴伦支海和喀拉海北部。这种变化很容易引起更强的向南的定常Rossby波列传播，影响与沙尘有关的大气环流（东亚副热带急流加强，气旋生成增加，大气热不稳定度增大）。因此，冬季SICBS的年际变化在华北沙尘气候条件中的作用越来越重要，可以作为华北春季沙尘活动的一种新的前兆。
The link between winter sea ice cover in the Barents Sea (SICBS) and the frequency of spring dust weather over North China (DWFNC) is investigated. It is found that year-to-year variability of SICBS and DWFNC are strongly correlated for the period 1996-2014 with a correlation coefficient of -0.65, whereas the correlation between SICBS and DWFNC is not statistically significant for the periods 1980-2014 and 1980-1995. During 1996-2014, low winter SICBS is associated with decreased snow cover over western Siberia (SCWS) in both winter and spring, which is also supported by a strengthening relationship between winter SICBS and spring SCWS since the mid-1990s. This leads to changes in atmospheric circulation and climate conditions that are favorable for increased frequency of dust weather events over North China. Our further analysis suggests that the interannual variability of the standard deviation of SICBS has intensified and the center of actions has moved eastward to the north Barents Sea and Kara Sea since the mid-1990s. Such change may easily induce stronger and southward stationary Rossby wave train propagation, influencing the dust-related atmospheric circulation (strengthened East Asian subtropical jet, increased cyclogenesis, and larger atmospheric thermal instability). Thus interannual variation of winter SICBS plays an increasingly important role in dust-related climate conditions over North China, which might serve as a new precursor for the prediction of spring dust activity in North China.