Modeling psychopathology: From data models to formal theories.
Modeling psychopathology: From data models to formal theories.
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DOI：
10.1037/met0000303
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Borsboom, Denny
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haslbeck, Jonas M B;Ryan, Oisin;Robinaugh, Donald J;Waldorp, Lourens J;Borsboom, Denny
在过去的十年中，大量实证研究将精神障碍视为复杂的系统。在本文中，我们研究如何最好地利用这一不断增长的实证研究，并使该领域朝着解释、预测和控制精神病理学的基本目标迈进。我们首先回顾关于科学理论的当代科学哲学文献，并认为充分实现解释、预测和控制的目标需要我们构建精神障碍的正式理论：用数学语言或计算编程语言表达的理论。然后，我们研究了三种使用实证发现（即数据模型）来构建形式理论的途径：（a）使用数据模型本身作为形式理论，（b）使用数据模型来推断形式理论，以及（c）将经验数据模型与理论隐含的数据模型进行比较，以评估和完善现有的形式理论。我们认为第三种方法是最有希望的前进道路。最后，我们通过对科学哲学的回顾和方法论调查来介绍溯因形式理论构建（AFTC）框架。我们认为，这种方法为利用实证研究为精神病理学领域和更广泛的心理科学领域的形式理论的产生、发展和测试提供信息提供了一条清晰且有前途的前进方向。
Over the past decade, there has been a surge of empirical research investigating mental disorders as complex systems. In this paper, we investigate how to best make use of this growing body of empirical research and move the field toward its fundamental aims of explaining, predicting, and controlling psychopathology. We first review the contemporary philosophy of science literature on scientific theories and argue that fully achieving the aims of explanation, prediction, and control requires that we construct formal theories of mental disorders: theories expressed in the language of mathematics or a computational programming language. We then investigate three routes by which one can use empirical findings (i.e., data models) to construct formal theories: (a) using data models themselves as formal theories, (b) using data models to infer formal theories, and (c) comparing empirical data models to theory-implied data models in order to evaluate and refine an existing formal theory. We argue that the third approach is the most promising path forward. We conclude by introducing the Abductive Formal Theory Construction (AFTC) framework, informed by both our review of philosophy of science and our methodological investigation. We argue that this approach provides a clear and promising way forward for using empirical research to inform the generation, development, and testing of formal theories both in the domain of psychopathology and in the broader field of psychological science.