Assessing River Basin Development Given Water-Energy-Food-Environment Interdependencies
Assessing River Basin Development Given Water-Energy-Food-Environment Interdependencies
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DOI：
10.1029/2019ef001464
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Conway, Declan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Geressu, Robel;Siderius, Christian;Conway, Declan
全球南方的许多河流流域正在快速发展，对相互依存的水-能源-粮食-环境（WEFE）“关系”部门产生重大影响。关于这种自然-人类系统应该发展到何种程度，通常存在多种观点。河流流域的最佳投资取决于人们如何构建规划问题。因此，我们提出了一种方法，通过比较 WEFE 部门的权衡来评估不同流域开发方案的最佳（优化）实施。我们将该方法应用于坦桑尼亚的鲁菲吉河流域，该地区具有多个 WEFE 相互依存关系，并且具有很高的发展潜力（灌溉和水力发电）和生态系统服务。绩效指标是通过利益相关者协商确定的，并描述了 WEFE 部门在流域开发情景下的反应。结果表明，能源和灌溉扩张存在巨大潜力。优先考虑能源生产的设计会对环境绩效产生不利影响；然而，通过旨在复制流量自然变化的释放规则，可以最大限度地减少部分负面影响。月度发电的可靠性比累计年发电量对环境管理更敏感。总体结果凸显了部门权衡如何根据开发程度而变化，这在未来可能难以监管，并且存在重要的流域规模的相互依赖性。讨论了该方法及其应用的优点和局限性。
Many river basins in the Global South are undergoing rapid development with major implications for the interdependent water-energy-food-environmental (WEFE) "nexus" sectors. A range of views on the extent to which such natural-human systems should be developed typically exists. The perceived best investments in river basins depend on how one frames the planning problem. Therefore, we propose an approach where the best possible (optimized) implementations of different river basin development scenarios are assessed by comparing their WEFE sector trade-offs. We apply the approach to Tanzania's Rufiji river basin, an area with multiple WEFE interdependencies and high development potential (irrigation and hydropower) and ecosystem services. Performance indicators are identified through stakeholder consultation and describe WEFE sector response under scenarios of river basin development. Results show considerable potential exists for energy and irrigation expansion. Designs that prioritize energy production adversely affect environmental performance; however, part of the negative impacts can be minimized through release rules designed to replicate the natural variability of flow. The reliability of monthly energy generation is more sensitive to environmental-oriented management than the cumulative annual energy production. Overall results highlight how sectoral trade-offs change depending on the extent of development, something that may be difficult to regulate in the future, and that there are important basin-scale interdependencies. Benefits and limitations of the approach and its application are discussed.