Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe – Part 1: Is the GEV model suitable as a pan-European parent?
Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe – Part 1: Is the GEV model suitable as a pan-European parent?
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欧洲区域母体洪水频率分布 - 第 1 部分：GEV 模型是否适合作为泛欧洲母体？
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Kjeldsen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Salinas;A. Castellarin;A. Viglione;S. Kohnová;T. Kjeldsen
本研究解决了在欧洲尺度上存在母洪水频率分布的问题。利用13个国家的数据集，建立了4105个流域年最大洪水序列（AMS）的l矩比数据库。对数据库的简单探索表明，广义极值（GEV）分布是潜在的泛欧洲洪水频率分布，是与样本l矩比估计平均值最相似的三参数统计模型。额外的蒙特卡罗模拟表明，数据中存在的样本偏度和峰度方面的可变性比所有样本都来自GEV模型的假设情况更大。总的来说，广义极值分布不能代表峰度离散，特别是对于较长的样本长度和中高偏度值，因此可能在统计假设检验框架中被拒绝作为年洪水最大值的单一泛欧洲母分布。本文的结果表明，一个单一的统计模型可能无法拟合欧洲范围内的各种洪水过程，这为进一步研究控制欧洲洪水状况的流域和气候因素及其对潜在洪水频率分布的影响提供了机会。
This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale. A new database of L-moment ratios of flood annual maximum series (AMS) from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national data sets. Simple exploration of the database presents the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the three-parameter statistical model that with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios. Additional Monte Carlo simulations show that the variability in terms of sample skewness and kurtosis present in the data is larger than in a hypothetical scenario where all the samples were drawn from a GEV model. Overall, the generalized extreme value distribution fails to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for the longer sample lengths and medium to high skewness values, and therefore may be rejected in a statistical hypothesis testing framework as a single pan-European parent distribution for annual flood maxima. The results presented in this paper suggest that one single statistical model may not be able to fit the entire variety of flood processes present at a European scale, and presents an opportunity to further investigate the catchment and climatic factors controlling European flood regimes and their effects on the underlying flood frequency distributions.